MLB awards betting markets have been open for several weeks, giving bettors plenty of time to study the early odds. Along with preseason predictions for the players most likely to win MVP and Cy Young in each league, we’ll also take a look at a few longshots that could offer real betting value.
AL Cy Young
There’s every chance the AL Cy Young race once again comes down to Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Hunter Brown. Of that trio, Brown (+1200) currently looks like the best betting value.
Still, the presence of a few dominant aces doesn’t mean others can’t pitch their way into the Cy Young conversation.
Logan Gilbert, for instance, looks poised for a strong season. The towering right-hander appears to have reintroduced his cutter while adding a lethal splinker to his arsenal. Gilbert posted a 3.06 xERA in 2024 and a 3.09 mark in 2025, and he has already shown he can handle a heavy workload, surpassing 200 innings in the past. The combination of durability and improving stuff gives him all the ingredients of a potential Cy Young winner in 2026.
Just behind Gilbert in FanDuel’s latest odds is Dylan Cease, who joins the American League after leading the majors in strikeouts per nine innings. While his ERA suggested a down year, the underlying stuff remains elite. Cease has been in the Cy Young conversation before, finishing as a contender in both 2022 and 2024, and he owns a 3.36 FIP over the past four seasons.
Then there’s Shane McClanahan. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023, but his résumé still commands attention. McClanahan carries a career 130 ERA+ and has long paired elite stuff with solid command. Early signs from spring training have been encouraging, and it’s not unreasonable to believe he could reemerge as a frontline ace in 2026.
Best value bets: Logan Gilbert (+2200), Dylan Cease (+2500), Shane McClanahan (+7000)
NL Cy Young
Paul Skenes is understandably the runaway favorite for the NL Cy Young Award with Opening Day just weeks away. Chris Sale, who won the award in 2024, joins Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cristopher Sánchez as the closest challengers in the early betting markets.
If Skenes stays healthy for 28 or more starts, it’s difficult to see anyone matching his production. That said, Cy Young races rarely follow a straight line. If Skenes were to miss significant time, the National League field would quickly become wide open.
One pitcher who could force his way into the conversation is Eury Pérez. Long viewed as a potential breakout candidate, Pérez showed meaningful progress last season despite a high ERA. The Marlins’ right-hander posted a 3.23 xERA, and his fastball, slider, and curveball all graded as great to elite pitches.
Another intriguing name is Nolan McLean. Fresh off a 2.06 ERA in eight starts last season, McLean has very limited major-league experience, but his deep arsenal could allow him to make an immediate impact. His curveball in particular is extremely difficult to square up, and it pairs well with a heavy sinker. The biggest question surrounding McLean is workload, as the Mets are likely to manage his innings carefully.
Then there’s the rookie angle in Pittsburgh. What if the Pirates end up with the best young one-two punch in baseball?
Bubba Chandler flashed significant upside in his brief big-league stint last season, posting a 3.66 xERA. His raw stuff immediately stood out, including a fastball that graded at 113 Stuff+ and a slider at 118. Chandler has also piled up strikeouts throughout the minors, suggesting there may be another level coming if his development continues.
Best value bets: Eury Pérez (+3000), Nolan McLean (+5000), Bubba Chandler (+12500)
AL MVP:
Winner of three of the last four AL MVP awards, it’s no surprise that Aaron Judge enters 2026 as the heavy favorite. Bobby Witt Jr. and Cal Raleigh, runners-up in 2024 and 2025 respectively, sit just behind him in the early betting markets.
Beyond that group, the odds widen quickly. No other player is shorter than +1200 at FanDuel. Julio Rodríguez, coming off a 6.8 bWAR season, carries considerably longer odds than his teammate Raleigh. Despite totaling 112 home runs and 117 stolen bases over the last four seasons, it’s fair to question whether Rodríguez has the offensive profile to win this award given his low walk rate.
Still, the upside is undeniable. A 150 OPS+ season paired with a 40–40 campaign and Gold Glove defense would firmly place the Mariners’ center fielder in the MVP conversation.
Gunnar Henderson doesn’t provide the same defensive value as Rodríguez, but he has already shown MVP-level production, most notably during his 2024 campaign. Henderson remains a capable defender at shortstop, and his elite bat speed and strong contact skills give him a realistic path to a 40-plus homer season with a high batting average and double-digit steals.
Wyatt Langford and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have yet to demonstrate the same offensive ceiling as Rodríguez or Henderson, but both offer intriguing MVP pathways. Langford combines excellent defense with speed, patience at the plate, and strong power metrics, ranking in the 87th percentile in barrel rate. Chisholm posted a 31-homer, 31-steal season last year and could follow a similar blueprint to Rodríguez, using power and speed to offset a lower on-base percentage.
Best value bets: Julio Rodríguez (+1200), Gunnar Henderson (+1700), Wyatt Langford (+5000), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+10000)
NL MVP
Everyone other than Shohei Ohtani falls into the longshot category for the NL MVP award. Ohtani has won MVP in each of his first two seasons in the National League, despite pitching a total of just 47 innings during that span.
If he’s healthy and able to make 20 or more starts in 2026, Ohtani will be extremely difficult to beat. Of course, health remains the biggest variable, given how limited his pitching workload has been since arriving from NPB.
Behind him, Corbin Carroll looks like one of the most credible challengers. Carroll already has two top-six MVP finishes and has totaled 78 home runs and 121 stolen bases over the past three seasons. During that stretch, he has also posted two seasons with an OPS+ of 133 or better.
Carroll appeared to unlock another level of power last year, nearly doubling his previous career-high barrel rate and finishing with 31 home runs. Combined with blazing speed and strong defense, a 7-plus bWAR season is well within reach.
Another intriguing candidate is Will Smith. If the Dodgers catcher can carry over his 2025 production across a fully healthy season, he could firmly enter the MVP conversation. A .901 OPS from a catcher is exceptionally rare, and Smith’s plate discipline remains a major strength. He posted a 14.7 percent walk rate in 2025 while recording his highest barrel rate since 2020. It’s not unreasonable to envision a 6 bWAR season from Smith, and if that happens, his name will be squarely in the MVP conversation.
Best value bets: Corbin Carroll (+2500), Will Smith (+4000)
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