AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles

2025 Recap

Final record: 75-87

Division finish: 5th 

Biggest Strengths

There weren’t many positives to take from Baltimore’s disappointing 2025 season. The performances of Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish were the most encouraging elements, though the pair combined for only 24 regular season starts. 

Biggest Weaknesses

Pretty much everything else. The Orioles were 20th or worse in wRC+, starter ERA, and reliever ERA. The lineup had plenty of holes, with Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday enduring difficult seasons at the plate. 

Key Additions

Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso represent two major additions to the Orioles’ offense. Blaze Alexander adds infield depth, while Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt fortify the rotation after Grayson Rodriguez’s departure in the Ward deal.

With Félix Bautista out for the year, Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge bring experience to the back end of a bullpen that was 25th in ERA in 2025. 

Prospects Likely to Contribute

DH/catcher Samuel Basallo and outfielder Dylan Beavers are the prospects set to make an immediate impact. They are projected for 109 and 111 wRC+ marks, respectively.

First-round pick in 2024, Griff O’Farrall, could contribute in the second half of the season if he progresses in Double-A. Despite falling outside the top 100 prospects, Enrique Bradfield might get some outfield reps if he shows he can hit in Triple-A. 

A raft of young pitchers should make the big leagues, including Trey Gibson, Nestor German, and Luis de Leon, who posted gaudy strikeout numbers in 2025. 

Key Losses

Rodriguez became a Los Angeles Angel, Bautista is injured, and Tomoyuki Sugano signed with the Colorado Rockies. 

Bullpen reinforcements have helped to cover for the loss of Bautista. Only time will tell if letting Rodriguez go was a mistake. 

Projected Lineup

Gunnar Henderson

Taylor Ward

Pete Alonso

Samuel Basallo

Colton Cowser

Dylan Beavers

Coby Mayo

Adley Rutschman

Blaze Alexander

Projected Pitching Staff

Rotation

Kyle Bradish 

Shane Baz

Trevor Rogers

Zach Eflin

Chris Bassitt

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley

Andrew Kittredge

Keegan Akin

Yennier Canó

Dean Kremer

Dietrich Enns

Rico Garcia

Biggest Question Mark

The rotation, once again, is the biggest concern with these Orioles. Every area of the team needs to improve if they are going to contend in 2026, but there’s more reason to believe in the lineup and bullpen than the starting staff.

Bradish, Rogers, Baz, and Bassitt are a strong quartet on paper. How many starts do they make? Does Rogers get anywhere near the level he showed last year? Does Baz finally make the most of his sharp stuff?

Breakout Candidate

It’s Baz and it’s a no-brainer. He’s coming off a career-high groundball rate and discovered a wicked knucklecurve. The stuff+ mark of 107, and a good strikeout rate, indicates he’s capable of being an elite pitcher if he puts everything together. 

Projected record: 88-74

Boston Red Sox

2025 Recap

Final record: 89-73

Division finish: 3rd 

Biggest Strengths

Second in wins above average from their outfield spots and second in reliever ERA, the Red Sox were a relatively well-rounded team last season, but these were their two biggest strengths. The outfield should be even stronger in 2026 with a full season of Roman Anthony.

Biggest Weaknesses

Rotation depth and the right side of the infield were Boston’s biggest weaknesses in 2025. In the bottom 10 in value from first base and well below average at second base, the Red Sox had two holes in their lineup for most of the year.  

Key Additions

Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin fill gaps in the lineup. Contreras brings a major upgrade at first base, and Durbin brings versatility to the infield. Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez transform the rotation behind Garrett Crochet.

Prospects Likely to Contribute

Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer have graduated. Boston doesn’t have many position players banging the door down, though we could see Franklin Arias in the second half. Payton Toole and Connelly Early are going to be major factors in the rotation.

Key Losses

Alex Bregman is Boston’s biggest loss. Durbin won’t be as productive as Bregman was and the lineup is weaker overall as it stands, even with Contreras improving the situation at first base. 

Projected Lineup

Roman Anthony

Jarren Duran

Trevor Story

Willson Contreras

Wilyer Abreu

Caleb Durbin

Carlos Narváez

Marcelo Mayer

Ceddanne Rafaela

Projected Pitching Staff

Rotation

Garrett Crochet

Sonny Gray

Ranger Suárez

Brayan Bello

Johan Oviedo

Bullpen

Aroldis Chapman

Justin Slaten

Garrett Whitlock

Greg Weissert

Zack Kelly

Jovani Moran

Tyler Samaniego

Biggest Question Mark

How much can Mayer and Campbell offer? It’s fair to assume Anthony is going to be in the All-Star mix after what he showed us in 2025. Campbell struggled mightily in the big leagues and 136 plate appearances wasn’t enough to evaluate Mayer.

Breakout Candidate

Toole has only pitched 16.1 big-league innings. His numbers weren’t pretty in his seven outings. Still, there’s a reason he’s considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He’s got a 119 stuff+ and could be a transformative player for Boston in 2026. 

Projected record: 90-72

New York Yankees

2025 Recap

Final record: 94-68

Division finish: 2nd 

Biggest Strengths

An elite offense, the best in the majors by wRC+, and a very strong rotation were the Yankees’ biggest strengths last season. They were in the top 12 in production from most offensive positions, including a dominant showing from the Aaron Judge/Ben Rice tandem at DH.

Biggest Weaknesses

It’s a toss-up between the bullpen and the catching department. The Angels were the only team to get less value from their catchers. New York was in the bottom seven in bullpen ERA, despite sitting sixth in xERA.

Key Additions

The Yankees are basically running it back. Ryan Weathers brings rotation depth, and Gerrit Cole feels like an addition after returning from injury, but they didn’t add any of the big-name free agents.

Prospects Likely to Contribute

The farm isn’t packed with high-impact prospects. Elmer Rodriguez, who lit up Double-A in 2025, should contribute at some stage, and top prospect Spencer Jones will be in the big leagues before long. George Lombard Jr. struggled in Double-A last year, so it’s touch-and-go whether he makes it to the bigs in 2026. 

Key Losses

Luke Weaver and Devin Williams signed with the Mets. The Yankees brought back other free agents in Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, but it was an underwhelming offseason in the Bronx. 

Projected Lineup

Trent Grisham

Cody Bellinger

Aaron Judge

Giancarlo Stanton

Ben Rice

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Ryan McMahon

Austin Wells

Oswaldo Cabrera

Projected Pitching Staff

Rotation

Max Fried

Luis Gil

Ryan Weathers

Cam Schlittler

Will Warren

Bullpen

David Bednar

Jake Bird

Camilo Doval

Fernando Cruz

Tim Hill

Paul Blackburn

Ryan Yarbrough

Biggest Question Mark

How healthy is the rotation? And how good are Cam Schlittler and Will Warren? The young duo are projected for 3.0 fWAR by Depth Charts and could play a pivotal role if availability becomes an issue for New York’s veterans.

Breakout Candidate

Just as Toole is a needle-mover for Boston, Schlittler can be for New York. He showed up in the postseason and posted a 112 stuff+ in the majors. If he performs at an All-Star level, the Yankees’ rotation could be top five.

Projected record: 93-69

Tampa Bay Rays

2025 Recap

Final record: 77-85

Division finish: 4th 

Biggest Strengths

Corner infield and the bullpen. It’s almost a guarantee the Rays will have a top 10 bullpen, given their elite pitching development and knack for finding overlooked arms. Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero formed one of the best corner infield duos in the league, with Yandy Díaz providing another strong bat at DH.

Biggest Weaknesses

Only seven teams got less value from their outfield than the Rays. None of their projected starting outfielders in 2026 are expected to be above league average with the bat.

Key Additions

Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins, and Jake Fraley arrived via trade, free agency, and a waiver claim, respectively. Ben Williamson and Justyn-Henry Malloy are probably bench players at the start of the year after arriving from Seattle and Detroit. Veteran arms Nick Martinez and Steven Matz bring depth to the rotation, while relievers Steven Wilson and Yoendrys Gómez come in from the White Sox. 

Prospects Likely to Contribute

His prospect status has dropped over the last 12 months, but Carson Williams is still the future for the Rays at shortstop. Joe Rock should get a chance after sporadic big-league appearances in 2025. 

Michael Forret and Austin Overn, two of the prospects in the Baz trade, could make it to the big leagues this year. Hunter Feduccia projects as the opening day backup catcher. Xavier Isaac will get some plate appearances if he shines in Triple-A.

Key Losses

Adrian Houser signed with the Giants, Pete Fairbanks is now a Marlin, and Baz was traded to Baltimore. The rotation looks very different, but the Rays will trust their system to replace Fairbanks’ production.. 

Projected Lineup

Yandy Díaz

Jonathan Aranda

Junior Caminero

Gavin Lux

Jake Fraley

Cedric Mullins

Taylor Walls

Nick Fortes

Chandler Simpson

Projected Pitching Staff

Rotation

Drew Rasmussen

Shane McClanahan

Nick Martinez

Ryan Pepiot

Steven Matz

Bullpen

Griffin Jax

Garrett Cleavinger

Bryan Baker

Edwin Uceta

Mason Englert

Steven Wilson

Cole Sulser

Biggest Question Mark

How can this outfield be better than last year? Tampa Bay changed the makeup of its outfield, but none of those moves have brought an impact bat. Can they get more than expected from Mullins and Fraley?

Breakout Candidate

Edwin Uceta had a 3.79 ERA in 2025. There’s a chance he knocks a run or more off that in 2026 if he gets over a shoulder impingement that has ruled him out of the World Baseball Classic. Uceta was in the 96th percentile in whiff rate last season and his slider had a 116 stuff+. 

Projected record: 80-82

Toronto Blue Jays

2025 Recap

Final record: 94-68

Division finish: 1st 

Biggest Strengths

The offense was phenomenal. A 112 wRC+ was built on a mix of power and the majors’ lowest strikeout rate. Toronto was fifth in xwOBA in 2025 and their batting average was seven points higher than any other team. 

Biggest Weaknesses

The rotation ranked 20th in ERA and was largely mediocre in the second half. The bullpen finished 21st in wins above average. It’s impressive the Jays still won 94 games with a pitching staff this flawed.

Key Additions

Dylan Cease was added to the top of a rotation that struggled last year. Kazuma Okamoto brings patience, power, and a projected 2.7 fWAR to the hot corner. Cody Ponce, fresh off a strong season in the KBO, joins the back end of the rotation, and submariner Tyler Rogers slots in as Jeff Hoffman’s primary set-up man.

Prospects Likely to Contribute

Trey Yesavage is still technically a prospect. He’s the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year after a string of impressive playoff outings. 

Jake Bloss should pitch big-league innings when he’s healthy. Josh Kasevich might get an opportunity if he’s productive in Triple-A, while Venezuelan outfielder Yohendrick Pinango put up great Double-A numbers in 2025. After missing all of last season, Ricky Tiedemann is ready to push for his MLB debut. 

Key Losses

The Jays were outbid for Bo Bichette, who signed a big-money, three-year deal with the Mets. Bassitt swapped Toronto for Baltimore, and Seranthony Domínguez penned a two-year, $20 million deal with the White Sox. 

Projected Lineup

George Springer

Addison Barger

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Alejandro Kirk

Daulton Varsho

Kazuma Okamoto

Jesús Sánchez

Andrés Giménez

Davis Schneider 

Projected Pitching Staff

Rotation

Dylan Cease

Kevin Gausman

Shane Bieber

Trey Yesavage

Cody Ponce

Bullpen

Jeff Hoffman

Tyler Rogers

Louis Varland

Brandon Little

Mason Fluharty

Eric Lauer

Tommy Nance

Biggest Question Mark

Will the offense be able to replicate its 2025 dominance? George Springer may not have another 161 OPS+ season in him. How long will it take Okamoto to adjust to big-league pitching? Without Bichette, this lineup has a much lower floor.

Breakout Candidate

Look at the seasons the Jays got from Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, and Daulton Varsho. There’s no reason they can’t unlock similar production from Jesús Sánchez. The former Marlin has elite bat speed and posted strong batted-ball numbers in 2024. An .820 OPS is well within reach.

Projected record: 92-70

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