NHL commissioner Gary Bettman threw out a surprise at his league's Board of Governors meeting, announcing that the league has begun the process of possibly becoming the first to go beyond 32 teams.
Bettman suggested a pair of Texas cities, Houston and Austin, as potential homes for what would be the league's 33rd team. Obviously, either one would go to the Central Division to create a rivalry with the Dallas Stars.
Bettman said that the NHL would be fine with 33 teams if it only grew by one, as it's had an odd number before. While that might be the case, it's not an ideal setup for the league. Additionally, both Houston and Austin present several problems that keep each from being a perfect choice.
Here's a look at each market, as well as what the league should end up doing.
Both Locations Have Arena Issues
There's a major reason Houston has never had an NHL team: the Houston Rockets. The Rockets had written into their leases at both The Summit and Toyota Center that an NHL team is only permitted to play at the arena if it's owned by the Rockets' owner. Both former Rockets owner Leslie Alexander and current owner Tilman Fertitta have at times expressed interest in acquiring an NHL team, but nothing has ever come of it.
Bettman's announcement didn't mention Fertitta. Instead, Dan Friedkin was named as the prospective owner. Friedkin has a net worth between $9 and $11 billion, so money isn't a question. But a Houston team would either have to deal with Fertitta, or wait several years for a new arena to be built.
Austin has a nearly new arena, the four-year-old Moody Center. However, the University of Texas didn't build it with an ice chilling system, given that it doesn't play hockey. As such, the Moody Center doesn't have the ability to host hockey at all. Most likely, the team would have to play a half-hour north of Austin in Cedar Park until a new arena were built.
Neither choice is workable right now. And neither Houston nor Austin is likely to contribute many public dollars for an NHL-only arena. Friedkin could afford to build his own, but that's not likely to win him many friends when other owners expect their cities to contribute.
Both Markets Have Struggled With Hockey
It's hard to say that Texas is much of a hockey hotbed. Dallas has certainly blossomed into one, but that's because the Stars have invested heavily in growing the game there. Houston and Austin would take several years to develop a real following.
That's not to say hockey can't work in those places. Vegas has been a runaway hit with the Golden Knights, and Tampa Bay, Nashville and Carolina have entrenched themselves in their non-traditional markets. But it takes time, and Friedkin has to be committed to the long term.
The good news for a Texas team is that Friedkin can absorb losses for many years. Having a net worth in the billions will do that. But even with that, this would be a major gamble for the NHL that two Texas markets can work.
The Division Imbalance Can't Last For Long
It's not a fair situation if one division has nine teams and the other three have eight. In the NHL, divisions matter more than most sports, with three playoff spots decided by division finish and two wild cards rounding out each conference. A nine-team division means tougher competition for the same number of guaranteed spots, putting those teams at a structural disadvantage compared to eight-team divisions.
The NHL doesn't need an even number for scheduling. Not every team plays every day, and sharing arenas with the NBA means that playing every day can't happen anyway. But it does need an even number for fairness. Going a year or two with the imbalance is fine, but eventually the league will have to get to 34 or even 36.
36 Could Make Sense Regarding Markets
Atlanta and Phoenix both want the NHL back, and neither is much of a secret. The Coyotes' relocation to Utah left Phoenix without a team and with unfinished business, while Atlanta has never had stable ownership despite supporting a passionate fan base. Quebec City, meanwhile, has an NHL-ready arena and a town that has been waiting patiently for decades.
In a perfect world, the NHL could easily maintain competitive balance with a four-team expansion over time. Adding Phoenix to the Pacific, a Texas city to the Central, Quebec to the Atlantic and Atlanta to the Metropolitan would create four clean nine-team divisions across two 18-team conferences.
The geography could be a little awkward, especially in Atlanta's case. A new Atlanta team would be in a different division from the Florida teams and a separate conference from nearby Nashville. But facing the likes of the New York teams, Pittsburgh and Washington should help them succeed, as would finally getting an ownership group with a genuine long-term commitment to the market.
The NHL could choose not to expand at all. But if Bettman's announcement is any indication, the league is already further down this road than it's letting on. The arena issues in Texas are real, and the division imbalance will eventually demand a solution. The smarter play is to think beyond one team now, identify the right markets, and expand with a plan rather than a patch.
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