We’re already two rounds into the tournament and it feels like it just started. While mostly chalk has moved on, there have still been plenty of great games that delivered the chaos and unpredictability we expect from March. High Point’s win over Wisconsin and VCU’s 20-point comeback against North Carolina are reminders of why this is such a tough tournament to predict.
But that won’t stop us from trying. With the Sweet 16 set, here are four of the best bets on my card.
Michigan vs. Alabama, Over 174.5
With game outcomes often unpredictable, it can make sense to target areas that are more stable, like scoring. Michigan has looked dominant so far, averaging 98 points per game through the first two rounds, while Alabama shook off a slow start against Hofstra and followed it with two strong performances.
Both teams rank top 5 in scoring this season, with Alabama operating at an especially high offensive level. This sets up as a game that should be played at pace, with both sides capable of pushing the total over.
Purdue ML vs. Texas
Purdue is doing what every contender aims for this time of year, finding its rhythm in March. The Boilermakers opened the season ranked No. 1 but hit some bumps along the way, finishing seventh in the Big Ten. Michigan emerged as the conference favorite and rolled through much of the Big Ten Tournament before running into Purdue in the title game, where the Boilermakers won by eight to secure their third conference tournament championship in four years.
They now face a Texas team that is also playing its best basketball at the right time. Sean Miller has guided the Longhorns from the First Four to the Sweet 16, but inconsistency has defined much of their season, including three losses in March prior to that First Four win over NC State.
Purdue should advance, but this projects as a tight game. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn will need to control the game, and if they do, there are few teams remaining that can match Purdue at its best.
St. John’s + 6.5 vs. Duke
Duke earned the No. 1 overall seed, but it hasn’t looked the part so far. The Blue Devils were pushed by Siena, trailing for much of the game before escaping with a six-point win.
St. John’s, meanwhile, enters with momentum after a buzzer-beating layup from Dylan Darling. The No. 5 seed undersells this group. Rick Pitino’s team won 30 games, captured its second straight Big East tournament title, and followed that with wins over Northern Iowa and Kansas.
This sets up as a much closer game than the number suggests. St. John’s has a strong case to cover and is very much live to win outright. This is simply too many points against a Duke team that hasn’t hit its stride.
Arizona - 7.5 vs. Arkansas
Darius Acuff Jr. is emerging as a star for Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won seven straight, including the SEC tournament title, but this is a significant step up in competition.
Arizona has been one of the most consistent teams in the country, losing just twice all season and holding the No. 1 spot in the AP poll for much of the year before mid-February losses to Kansas and Texas Tech.
This sets up as a difficult matchup for Arkansas. Arizona’s defense, ranked seventh nationally, has the ability to limit Acuff Jr., and its edge on the glass should prove decisive, creating extra possessions while limiting second-chance opportunities.
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