As soon as the news broke on Sunday, most hockey fans were ready to proclaim the Florida Panthers the winners of the Brady Tkachuk deal with the Ottawa Senators.
Florida had acquired another piece to push toward a run at the Stanley Cup. Ottawa got back three first-round draft choices, plus a second-rounder, but no players. To several fans and pundits, that read as a sign the Senators had waved the white flag and were rebuilding.
Not so fast.
Ottawa's deal brings to mind another trade that got misjudged at the time. In 1989, most people believed Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson had lost his mind when he traded Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for five role players and three draft picks. But unbeknownst to everyone, including Vikings general manager Mike Lynn, Johnson was thinking several steps ahead.
He had tied a draft pick to each player in the deal, meaning if he cut a player, the Vikings were obligated to send Dallas the corresponding pick. Johnson ordered his coaches not to play any of the new players, since he wanted to restock his team's draft capital. When all was said and done, Dallas ended up with eight new draft choices, and the Cowboys turned them into ammunition.
The Cowboys made 51 trades over the next five years. Within four years, Dallas had a champion and Minnesota was in a rebuild. Ottawa's deal is not nearly as complex, but the Senators are likely far from finished making moves off this trade. Here is a look at their thinking.
Tkachuk's Trade Value Was At Its Peak
With two years left on his deal, Tkachuk's value was never going to get any higher. If Ottawa waited to trade him until next year, it was not going to get anywhere close to fair value for his services. The Senators had to make the best deal available now, or risk watching Tkachuk leave for nothing as a free agent.
What really forced Ottawa's hand was that Tkachuk told the team he would not sign a new deal. Ottawa has several pieces in place to be good for a while, but it cannot afford to watch one of its better players walk away for nothing. The free agent market would not have offered enough in return, and in two years the Senators would also be deeper into team friendly deals for Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson, making the comparison even less favorable.
Getting multiple draft picks gives Ottawa genuine flexibility. The Senators were heading into this draft without a second round pick and with a first round pick that came with restrictions, a consequence of failing to properly disclose Evgenii Dadonov's no trade list to Vegas.
With Tkachuk only willing to approve a trade to one of four teams, the Senators needed to extract meaningful value while they could. Florida does not need draft picks while it is fully in win now mode. Ottawa was looking for bargaining chips, and now it has them.
The 2026 Draft Is Deep
Holding two picks among the first 25 in a deep draft gives Ottawa several paths for finding trade partners. The Senators can move in multiple directions depending on how the draft unfolds and what other teams are willing to give up.
That mirrors Johnson's strategy with the Cowboys. Dallas never used the picks it acquired from Minnesota in their original slots. Instead, the team moved them around to other franchises, either to acquire more draft capital or to move up for a player it specifically wanted.
Ottawa is now free of Tkachuk's no trade clause and can entertain any trade proposal it wants. If a talented player falls in the draft, the Senators might send a first round pick to a rebuilding team in exchange for a top six forward. Or they could package multiple picks together and move up themselves.
Either way, the Senators can build around their existing core and maximize what they have. With a deep draft and plenty of picks to use or trade, Ottawa can pursue whatever strategy suits it best.
The Senators Aren't Really Ready Yet
Ottawa is not in a full scale rebuild. But the Senators were not ready to truly contend for the Stanley Cup either. They have made the playoffs the past two years, only to get knocked out quickly by Toronto and Carolina. They remain a couple of pieces away from being able to challenge seriously in the Eastern Conference.
Ottawa likely needs a trade or a free agent signing to make a move within the Atlantic Division that actually moves the needle. Outside of the Hurricanes, the East's best teams all share a division with the Senators, so Ottawa has a clear view of what it will take to compete. Being honest about it, the team is not there yet.
Adding to the core will help the Senators over the long term. When Ottawa broke through in the 2000s, it did so by stockpiling talent and making trades to fill in the smaller gaps. The Senators have shown signs of getting back there, but they need to manage the process consistently. Sneaking into the playoffs and losing quickly is not progress worth celebrating.
Tkachuk Wore Out His Welcome
Ottawa fans and players alike made clear they were tired of the speculation and the negative atmosphere surrounding the team. After the Winter Olympics, Senators fans voiced their frustration with Tkachuk and viewed his apology as inadequate.
A young team cannot afford that kind of distraction. It is easy for a locker room to unravel once it turns toxic, and having a captain with one foot out the door would have created exactly that. Now Ottawa can name a new captain and build the team around that player's strengths instead.
Flexibility Matters Most
The bottom line is that Ottawa had an asset at its peak value, and trading Tkachuk now gives the Senators several pieces they can actually work with. If the right player becomes available, Ottawa now has the means to go get him.
It did not have that ability before this deal. Yet nearly every reaction to the trade has focused on whether the Panthers can become contenders again with Tkachuk in the fold. Very few people are paying attention to what Ottawa might do next with what it received.
If the Senators make smart trades and get full value out of these picks, they will have clearly won this deal overall. That would set them up for sustained success, something that almost never happens after trading away a star. Even if hardly anyone sees it yet, Ottawa has a chance to be good for years to come if it handles these draft assets correctly.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
