Sportsbooks have adjusted their Defensive Player of the Year odds since our January rankings. Healthy for a prolonged period and still leading an elite defense, Victor Wembanyama has replaced Chet Holmgren in top spot, while perennial contender Rudy Gobert remains a threat.
The fringe candidates for down-ballot votes have remained the same, with Ausar Thompson, Scottie Barnes, Cason Wallace, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick White likely to receive votes.
Here’s where the race stands right now.
1. Victor Wembanyama
Wembanyama is back in the starting five and has 19 stocks over his last four games. His 2.7 blocks per game once again leads the NBA, and San Antonio’s defense is 7.3 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
The Spurs are a middling to below average defense without Wembanyama. In his minutes, they are truly elite. That’s not just from the shots he swats, but the shots that aren’t taken, the shots that are altered, and the times he rescues a messy defensive possession with suffocating defense of a smaller player.
EPM doesn’t tab Wembanyama as the overwhelming favorite for this award. He’s in the top 10, but there’s nothing to split him from Gobert, Thompson, and others. Still, it’s very hard to make a case for anyone else as the frontrunner right now. The 65-game limit is all that stands in Wemby’s way.
2. Rudy Gobert
Only one starter has a better defensive EPM than Gobert. Minnesota’s on/off numbers are even starker, as they are 9.8 points worse per 100 possessions when Gobert is on the bench.
His block numbers aren’t as eye-catching as Wembanyama, but Gobert remains an elite rim protector. He’s a deterrent in the paint in a way few big men are. As he’s aged, he’s become more aware of where a block opportunity is worth it and where verticality is his friend.
It’s no mistake that Gobert is a four-time DPOY. For all the criticism of his game, he remains one of the two or three most impactful defensive players in the NBA. Talk of his decline has been overblown.
3. Chet Holmgren
Holmgren is the starting center for the best defense in the NBA. That alone leads to DPOY consideration. Also a mightily impactful rim protector capable of switching onto the perimeter, Holmgren has the second-shortest odds for this award.
He’s averaging 2.5 stocks per game. The question, though, is how much his ‘value’ on the defensive end is limited by the Thunder’s depth. Oklahoma City is better with Holmgren on the floor, but the difference when he’s on and off the court is not as significant as Wembanyama or Gobert.
Should that count against him? To an extent, yes. Being Defensive Player of the Year isn’t something that can be achieved without taking circumstances into account. We don’t see players on mediocre defenses win the award, so the Thunder still being a top two defense when Holmgren’s on the bench has to count for something.
4. Ausar Thompson
Advanced metrics love Thompson. He leads the NBA in defensive EPM and ranks fourth in defensive box plus-minus. He’s second to Wallace in steal rate and only three non-bigs have a better block rate.
Detroit isn’t a million miles behind OKC’s season-long defensive rating. They are miles ahead of the third-ranked Spurs. The Pistons being better defensively with Thompson off the court should be viewed as no more than a curious quirk, though it does give us something to think about when it comes to Defensive Player of the Year.
Several Pistons are going to be in the mix for All-Defensive selection. Thompson is the best all-around defender, sure, but that’s not enough to put him alongside Wemby and Gobert.
5. Scottie Barnes
Toronto is fifth in defense and Barnes is their best defensive player. The Raps ask a lot of Barnes on the defensive end, covering an array of matchups, and it’s notable their team block rate is 2.7 points higher with Barnes on the floor.
There are players with a higher matchup difficulty and with a wider range of matchups on the defensive end. Few, though, play as many minutes as Barnes in a team with a few middling to poor defenders.
The top four feel pretty much locked in for this ladder. Fifth was very much up for grabs, but Barnes just edges it for now with his mix of team importance and traditional stats.
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