The Western Conference semifinals tip off tonight, starting with Minnesota vs. San Antonio at 8 PM ET, followed by Oklahoma City vs. Los Angeles on Tuesday night. With four teams left in the West, the matchups couldn’t be more different, one shaping up as a grind-it-out showdown, the other looking like a complete mismatch on paper.
Let’s break down both series and make some picks.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs
This one is a mix of star power, pace, and health, and it might quietly be the best matchup of the round.
Minnesota enters with the second-fastest pace in the league and a top-five net rating, which is exactly the profile of a team built to make a deep run. The question is whether they’re whole enough to actually do it.
Anthony Edwards is back after missing time with a knee injury, and his presence changes everything. In three games against San Antonio this season, Edwards averaged 36.7 points, which tells you how important he is to Minnesota’s chances. Without him, Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels did enough to keep things afloat, but asking them to carry that load again against a team like the Spurs may be a stretch.
San Antonio brings its own storyline, centered around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs advanced past Portland in five games, even with Wembanyama missing Game 3 due to a concussion before returning to help close out the series. His ability to impact both ends of the floor gives San Antonio a clear edge, especially against a Minnesota team still working its way back to full strength.
One of the keys to watch will be the “Battle of the French Bigs”. Rudy Gobert was phenomenal against Nikola Jokić in the opening round, anchoring the defense and controlling the paint, and Minnesota will need that again here. He’ll be tasked with forcing Wembanyama into tougher looks away from the rim while staying disciplined enough to avoid foul trouble. On the other end, Gobert can flip the pressure by drawing fouls and making the young star defend physically. His screening, rebounding, and ability to create second chances could quietly swing possessions in Minnesota’s favor.
This is one of the most evenly matched series of the semifinals and has a strong case to be the most entertaining. If Edwards looks like himself, Minnesota has a legitimate path to pushing this the distance. If not, San Antonio’s consistency and health advantage should take control.
Prediction: Spurs in 7
This feels like a long, physical battle. Minnesota has the style and firepower to make it uncomfortable, but San Antonio is the more complete team right now. Expect a back-and-forth that likely will go the distance and one neutral fans should absolutely circle.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
This one is much simpler.
Oklahoma City dominated this matchup all season, going 4–0 against the Lakers and winning by an average of 29.3 points. That’s not a small-sample fluke, and sadly for Lakers fans, it’s a sign of what’s likely coming.
Even when Luka Dončić was on the floor, it didn’t help. The Lakers were outscored by 56 points in the 59 minutes he played against OKC this season, which tells you everything you need to know about how these teams stack up.
LeBron James continues to defy Father Time and delivered another strong playoff performance in Round 1, but this roster simply isn’t equipped to handle OKC. Whether Dončić returns or not, the matchup problems don’t go away.
To be fair, the Thunder aren’t fully healthy either. Jalen Williams is week-to-week with a Grade 1 hamstring strain and could miss a significant portion of the series. Still, Oklahoma City has enough depth and offensive production to absorb that loss, especially against a defense like the Lakers.
The Thunder are heavy favorites for a reason, and it’s difficult to find a consistent path for Los Angeles to keep pace.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
This isn’t quite the mismatch OKC saw in the first round, but it’s close. The Thunder should set the tone from the start and, barring a major injury or something unexpected, wrap it up quickly.
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