When the worst hitter in your lineup batted .290, you’ve got a strong hitting team from top to bottom.
That’s the case for Georgia Tech, the No. 2 overall seed. The Yellow Jackets had a strong case to be the top overall seed, given that they won the ACC regular season and tournament title. That hasn’t been done in more than a decade, and Tech did it with a 48-9 record to boot.
Based on the RPI, Tech might actually have an easier path than top seed UCLA. The Yellow Jackets open with Illinois-Chicago, a surprise winner of the Missouri Valley tournament. The Flames only just made it to a .500 record, earning one of the lowest seeds in the field.
The rest of the regional isn’t terribly frightening. Oklahoma lost its final four series in SEC play and crashed out of the conference tournament, losing to LSU. The Citadel upended Mercer in the Southern Conference tournament, but the Bulldogs went 0-10 against ranked teams over the season.
After the week Tech had at the ACC tournament in Charlotte, it would be a major surprise to see them fall short in their home park.
Georgia Tech’s Strengths and Weaknesses
The Yellow Jackets can hit for average and for power. They lead the nation with 616 runs, 83 more than second-place Mercer. Jarren Advincula leads the Jackets with a .431 average, and he’s one of five Tech hitters to hit .350 or better.
And he’s not even the best position player in this lineup. That would be catcher Vahn Lackey, projected as a top-five pick in the upcoming MLB draft. Lackey also hits over .400 and clubbed 18 home runs, putting him second on the team in both categories.
Much like in-state rival Georgia, the Jackets’ pitching is good but not great. Tech does have an ace in Jackson Blakely, and Tate McKee is a solid No. 2 when he keeps the ball in the park. The bullpen depth is good enough to beat most teams, but could struggle deeper into the tournament.
That said, opposing pitchers have an ERA of 11.17 against Tech. The Jackets are never out of a game, even when the pitching has a tough day. This slate of opponents will have a hard time slowing them down.
Oklahoma’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Oklahoma has a dilemma: do the Sooners throw ace Cameron Johnson in game 1, or hope to sneak by with LJ Mercurius, a solid No. 2 pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the park? As the No. 2 seed, the Sooners don’t have an easy game with The Citadel, but they also have to think about what’s waiting for them.
Johnson has only given up three home runs this year, while Mercurius allowed 13. Given that The Citadel is not a power-hitting team, Mercurius might be the choice. But if it doesn’t work, Oklahoma would be in serious trouble for the rest of the regional.
The Sooners’ biggest issue is that they don’t have the hitters. Outside of Deiten LaChance, nobody in the Oklahoma lineup can hit for both average and power. LaChance led the Sooners with 12 homers and batted .335, but he was one of just three hitters above .300 for the year.
With just 351 runs scored, Oklahoma’s offense ranked 14th in the SEC. The Sooners do have plenty of speed, stealing 114 bases overall. But that means they’ve got to challenge Lackey, which could run them out of an inning.
The Citadel’s Strengths and Weaknesses
The opening game against Oklahoma will see a lot of stolen base attempts. The Citadel swiped 139 bases on the year, led by Jayden Williams’ 28 thefts. Three different Bulldogs topped 20 steals, and two have an OBP above .400. Leading hitter Michael Gibson isn’t one of them, but he does have 12 and hit .394 for the season.
The Bulldogs also have a strong pitching option in Will Holmes. Holmes is the only Citadel pitcher to not make a relief appearance this year, starting in all 16 of his trips to the mound. He misses bats well, striking out 112 hitters on the year.
Where The Citadel runs into trouble is power, both in terms of hitting and strength of schedule. With just 38 dingers on the year, The Citadel isn’t a threat to score a lot at once. The Bulldogs have to manufacture runs, which might not work against stronger offenses.
The strength of schedule is also concerning. The Citadel played ranked opponents Florida State, Kentucky, Coastal Carolina, Georgia and Clemson, and they didn’t win even once. They gave Florida State a battle in pushing the Seminoles to 10 innings, but that’s as close as they got.
UIC’s Strengths and Weaknesses
There are some nice pieces in this lineup. Jake Busson hit 18 homers and Ashton Kampa sent 16 over the fence. But outside of Kampa’s .367, the Flames don’t hit for average very well.
They’ve also been through a lot of lineup changes. Only seven players qualified for end-of-year consideration, which required two plate appearances per game in over 75% of games. It’s hard to get chemistry in that environment, but that’s sometimes life for the lower-level conferences.
Mason Lei as the Flames’ ace looks interesting on paper, but the stats suggest he’ll be overmatched by Tech. Lei reached the seventh inning or better in his final seven starts, including a complete game against Valparaiso, but the Missouri Valley doesn’t have hitters of Tech’s caliber.
Against Indiana State, usually one of the Valley’s top teams, he didn’t make it through five innings. The same held against Missouri, who chased him after four. UIC has decent pitching beyond Lei, but it hasn’t proven itself against the hitters this regional contains.
Best Bet
The Citadel upsetting Oklahoma in the opening game at plus money looks like good value, especially if the Sooners try to save Johnson for a meeting with Tech. At +120, that’s a reasonable play to make.
Going against Georgia Tech in this regional doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Yellow Jackets’ offense appears too good, and the Sooners aren’t playing well enough to think they can spring the upset. As long as the bats pick up where they left off in Charlotte, Tech makes the most sense. But at -700, there’s no value there.
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