For the No. 5 overall seed, North Carolina didn’t get any favors.
What makes the Chapel Hill regional interesting is that everyone brings something to the table. For the two Carolina schools, it’s pitching and defense. For Tennessee, it’s power and a lot of offense. And Virginia Commonwealth will try to win with speed.
Unlike in some of the other regionals, there are no easy games in this one. It’s not completely wide open, as the Tar Heels and the Volunteers are definite favorites. But here, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a higher seed fall early.
That kind of situation can work in multiple ways. With the field looking more open, pitching depth becomes even more important. As long as the Tar Heels pitch the way they can, that gives them a slight edge.
North Carolina’s Strengths and Weaknesses
When Carolina chooses to use Jason DeCaro will tell a lot about how this all plays out. Most likely, the Heels will try to escape the first round without him and count on Ryan Lynch and the bullpen to get by Virginia Commonwealth. It’s risky, but DeCaro offers so much as Carolina’s ace that it makes sense to save him for the hardest game.
The Tar Heel bullpen helps make that a more reasonable strategy. Caden Glauber and Walker McDuffie were both lights-out from the bullpen, with Glauber turning in an ERA below 2. If the Heels can get the game over to the bullpen, they’ve got it where they want it.
The hitting is less consistent. There’s a big drop-off after Owen Hull and Jake Schaffner in terms of batting average. Both Hull and Schaffner do most of the damage on the basepaths as well, swiping 42 of Carolina’s 60 steals for the season.
Outside of Cooper Nicholson’s 15 home runs, the power can disappear at times. The Heels have to be on point with pitching and defense because they likely cannot win if they need to outslug someone.
Tennessee’s Strengths and Weaknesses
When you share a conference with Georgia, your strength at the plate can get overlooked. But with 111 home runs, Tennessee has some pop in its bats. Henry Ford’s 19 led the Volunteers, and there’s plenty of pop spread through the lineup.
The Vols’ pitching is more inconsistent, and it depends on whether the ball stays in the park. Tennessee actually allowed more home runs than doubles, which speaks to the kind of contact opponents generate against them. The Vols’ defense usually does the job, but they can’t make plays on baseballs that leave the stadium.
Whether the Vols’ pitchers can miss bats will be critical. Tennessee’s Tegan Kuhns fanned 100 hitters, and Evan Blanco was almost as good at 97. Both starters will need to stay ahead of opposing hitters to get the Volunteers moving on.
East Carolina’s Strengths and Weaknesses
The Pirates have the pitching to make it through this regional. East Carolina posted a 4.30 ERA as a team and has multiple relievers it can send out alongside ace starter Ethan Norby. Norby will likely go in Game 2, which the Pirates hope would be against North Carolina. The bullpen is good enough to get through a game with Tennessee, as long as the Pirates can limit the long ball.
But the Pirates might not be able to hit with the Vols and the Heels. Nobody in the ECU lineup hit more than nine home runs, and only two position players had more than 10 steals. This is a team that needs to string hits together to manufacture runs, which might work against Tennessee but would be tough sledding against Carolina.
The Pirates do have plenty of experience; they’ve made the regionals for the eighth straight season. That should help them in tight spots, which will almost certainly come with opponents like this. If East Carolina gets strong starts from its pitching staff, it has a chance to advance.
VCU’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Michael Petite, Nick Flores and Dante DeFranco present nightmares on the basepaths. Between them, they stole 55 bases and were only caught four times all season. Throw in Jacob Lee’s 17 home runs, and there’s potential for offense from the Rams.
The pitching is also solid, at least for the Atlantic 10. Elias Holbert and Patrick Steitz give VCU a solid 1-2 punch of starters, and Zach Peters has been lights out from the bullpen. But there’s a difference between facing the A-10 and facing top teams from the ACC and SEC. VCU played multiple ACC teams and won just once, beating Virginia at home.
Against Carolina, the Rams got run-ruled, with the Heels getting into the bullpen in the fourth inning. Neither of VCU’s top pitchers threw in that game, so that doesn’t mean the Rams are necessarily overmatched. But it does mean VCU doesn’t have the pitching depth the other programs do. If the Rams’ starters struggle, they’re done.
Best Bet
This might be a spot for a value play. Tennessee shouldn’t be going off at +350 while North Carolina sits at -200. Tennessee offers much better value than that, and the way the Volunteers hit could present real problems for the Heels.
If you like Tennessee to get out of the regional, now’s a good time to grab it. The Volunteers have enough offense to make it out of Chapel Hill, as long as the pitchers can keep the ball in the park.
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