There’s strong pitching, and then there’s Auburn’s rotation.
The Tigers own the best ERA in the SEC and fourth in the nation, and it’s in large part because of their aces. Most college teams struggle to find two strong starters; Auburn has four of them. They ended up moving Jackson Sanders to the bullpen, giving them a lights-out closer along with their three starters.
That makes for a tough assignment for the rest of the regional, which presents a contrast in styles. Central Florida plays more like Auburn and wins with arms and defense, while North Carolina State tries to pile on the offense.
The fourth team, Milwaukee, is likely here just to make up the numbers. The Panthers played 11 games against Power 4 opposition and went 1-10, getting run-ruled five times. If Milwaukee couldn’t handle the likes of Purdue and Notre Dame, it’s not likely to give anyone much of a battle.
Auburn’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Between Jake Marciano, Alex Petrovic and Andreas Alvarez, Auburn has an embarrassment of riches on the mound. Any team with hopes of getting out of Plainsman Park must beat at least one of them just to get to the decisive game. And if they do, this group can still throw relievers LJ Cormier and Ryan Hetzler along with Sanders at them.
Even more impressive is how they’ve done it. Plainsman Park actually favors hitters, but not the way Auburn pitches. The Tigers try to induce as many ground balls as possible, and they fanned 568 hitters on the season. Any run scored on Auburn is truly earned.
But like UCLA, the Tigers’ hitting is merely good rather than championship-level. Auburn certainly has solid hitters; Eric Guevara hit .335 and 12 home runs on the season. This squad leans on its pitching and defense more than anything else. If their starters do the job, they’ll make it through.
UCF’s Strengths and Weaknesses
UCF is going to try to beat Auburn at its own game. The Knights aren’t quite to the Tigers’ level in pitching, but they do pretty well for themselves. UCF gave up just 249 runs for the season, and the Knights have a solid bullpen. In Matt Sauser, Kris Sosnowski and Evan Jones, UCF can afford to get deep into the pen.
But the Knights don’t hit for power, and other than DeAmez Ross, they aren’t big threats to steal bases. To win games, the Knights have to string together several hits at a time.They did that enough in the Big 12 to make it into the tournament. But it’s a risky formula in this spot because it requires near-perfect execution against elite arms.
To have it work, UCF will need starters Camden Wicker and Mateo Gray to pitch long enough to give the bullpen a lead. UCF has the arms to get through the week, but only if the starters eat enough innings.
NC State’s Strengths and Weaknesses
The biggest issue for State is that it’s just not playing well. The Wolfpack stumbled badly down the stretch, and when they needed a big game against Duke to solidify their tournament chances, they gave up 21 runs.
There’s plenty of power and speed in the Wolfpack lineup. Ty Head hit 14 home runs and stole 26 bases, and he’s one of five State players with at least 10 steals. If the Wolfpack can get on base against UCF and Auburn’s pitchers, their speed can put pressure on their opponents.
But the mound presents a major problem. Cooper Consiglio is about as reliable as NC State has, and he’s got an ERA over 5. Heath Andrews got lit up against Duke and only made it through five innings in two of his past six starts. The bullpen was even worse in that game; the Blue Devils scored 15 runs in the final three innings.
If State is going to do anything to extend Elliott Avent’s career, it has to take advantage of Plainsman Park’s dimensions. If the park plays small, State can potentially move on. If not, the Wolfpack won’t last long.
Milwaukee’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Keep Dylan O’Connell off the basepaths. O’Connell stole 40 bases on the season, and his .336 batting average makes him the most dangerous threat in the Panthers’ lineup.
But there’s not much behind him, and the hurling is simply not there. Milwaukee’s team ERA was over 7, and the Panthers don’t miss all that many bats. Aric Ehmke and Gavin Theis kept their own ERA under 5 as starters, but most of that work came against Horizon League hitters. When the Panthers tried to step out and play bigger schools, they fell well short.
Milwaukee finished six games under .500, so the fact that it’s here at all is a major surprise. The Panthers might be the weakest team in the field, and they will probably see the year end quickly.
Best Bet
Watching on Day 1 could be the best way to decide how to bet this regional. If the balls are flying out of Plainsman Park, NC State could be a dark horse candidate. Otherwise, Auburn is probably coming out on top.
UCF could surprise, but trying to play the favorite’s game isn’t usually a winning strategy. The Knights’ pitching isn’t quite to the Tigers’ standards. That makes it tough for them to get the job done. NC State, on the other hand, plays differently enough that it could provide an unforeseen challenge to Auburn. The Tigers likely advance, but if you want to back an underdog, State has a chance.
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