Chicago Cubs
2025 Recap
Final record: 92-70
Division finish: 2nd
Biggest Strengths
Although the Cubs were sixth in wRC+ in 2025, they were far and away the league leaders in wins above average from their position players. Every position ranked in the top 10 by WAA, and Matt Shaw was the only player to appear in more than 80 games with an OPS+ below 100.
Biggest Weaknesses
Both the bullpen and rotation ranked in the bottom 10 in WAA, despite solid ERA marks for each unit. Third base also wasn’t especially productive offensively, though strong defense helped compensate.
Key Additions
Alex Bregman addresses the issue at third base. Edward Cabrera was acquired in a blockbuster trade to strengthen the rotation. The bullpen, which ranked 22ⁿᵈ in ERA over the final three months of the 2025 season, was reinforced with the additions of Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, Phil Maton, and Hunter Harvey.
Prospects Likely to Contribute
Moisés Ballesteros made an instant impact in his 20 big-league games last season and should be on the Opening Day roster. Coming off a strong year in Triple-A, Jonathon Long is waiting in the wings if plate appearances open up at an infield corner.
A quieter year in the high minors means James Triantos will have to prove he deserves an opportunity, while Kevin Alcántara will likely get another look in the big leagues at some point.
Top 100 prospect Jaxon Wiggins still has a bit to prove at Triple-A, but he isn’t far from The Show.
Key Losses
Kyle Tucker is the obvious headliner in this group, even though it never felt all that likely he would remain a Cub. Brad Keller, Michael Soroka, Taylor Rogers, Nate Pearson, and Drew Pomeranz were also among the veterans who signed elsewhere, while Owen Caissie was included in the deal to acquire Edward Cabrera.
Projected Lineup
Michael Busch
Alex Bregman
Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Nico Hoerner
Dansby Swanson
Moisés Ballesteros
Carson Kelly
Projected Pitching Staff
Rotation
Edward Cabrera
Jameson Taillon
Cade Horton
Matthew Boyd
Shota Imanaga
Bullpen
Hoby Milner
Jacob Webb
Phil Maton
Hunter Harvey
Daniel Palencia
Caleb Thielbar
Javier Assad
Biggest Question Mark
It’s a testament to the work done by the front office this offseason that the Cubs don’t have any glaring questions. The rotation might not have the highest ceiling, but there is a solid floor, with Justin Steele expected to return in the first half. Free agent relievers are not always the safest way to build a bullpen, so it will be interesting to see how the new-look group performs.
Breakout Candidate
There’s a decent chance Ballesteros ends up as a long-term DH. His brief major-league stint suggested he has the bat for the role, though a small-sample walk rate above 13% is higher than we should reasonably expect given his numbers in the minors. The raw power is exciting, though, and if he walks around 10% of the time, he could be a 120 wRC+ hitter in 2026.
Projected record: 94-68
Cincinnati Reds
2025 Recap
Final record: 83-79
Division finish: 3rd
Biggest Strengths
The only reasonable answer here is the rotation. Cincinnati’s starting pitchers ranked second in WAA and ninth in ERA. Their 16.1 fWAR was topped only by the Philadelphia Phillies. If they can keep their core arms healthy, this projects to be an elite group in 2026.
Biggest Weaknesses
There wasn’t much to like about the lineup, which posted a 92 wRC+. Other than Elly De La Cruz, the infield produced very little. The outfield was decent, though Austin Hays departed in free agency and TJ Friedl will probably not be as productive at the plate in 2026.
Key Additions
Fresh off a big power season with the Diamondbacks and Mariners, Eugenio Suárez was signed to a one-year deal to return to Cincinnati. He is the primary upgrade to the lineup, with JJ Bleday and Dane Myers also competing for outfield spots.
Caleb Ferguson, Pierce Johnson, and Brock Burke bring depth to the bullpen.
Prospects Likely to Contribute
Sal Stewart, one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, projects to begin the season at first base. Former first-round pick Cam Collier could get a look in the second half if he impresses in the upper minors.
Edwin Arroyo and Héctor Rodríguez are not far from filling in if there are infield or outfield injuries, respectively.
Look for Rhett Lowder, Jose Franco, and Chase Petty to join the pitching staff at some point in 2026.
Key Losses
Austin Hays, Nick Martinez, and Gavin Lux are the most notable departures. Zack Littell, who remains a free agent at the time of writing, also left the club, while Taylor Rogers and Brent Suter also reached free agency.
Projected Lineup
TJ Freidl
Matt McLain
Elly De La Cruz
Eugenio Suárez
Sal Stewart
JJ Bleday
Tyler Stephenson
Noelvi Marte
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Projected Pitching Staff
Rotation
Hunter Greene
Brady Singer
Andrew Abbott
Chase Burns
Nick Lodolo
Bullpen
Emilio Pagan
Tony Santillan
Brock Burke
Pierce Johnson
Caleb Ferguson
Connor Philips
Graham Ashcraft
Biggest Question Mark
Where does this offense find some life? The outfield positions are all projected to rank in the bottom eight in fWAR. A lot depends on De La Cruz rediscovering his power and Suárez backing up his big 2025 season. If Stewart doesn’t hit the ground running, the Reds could struggle to be a league-average group.
Breakout Candidate
His results didn’t fully reflect how well he pitched in 2025. Chase Burns posted a 3.48 xERA as a rookie. His big fastball was backed up by a lethal slider, and he struck out more than 35% of the hitters he faced. With a 115 Stuff+, the foundation is there for an All-Star caliber season.
Projected record: 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Recap
Final record: 97-65
Division finish: 1st
Biggest Strengths
The rotation was among the five best in baseball. A team inevitably has numerous strengths when it wins 97 games, and the Brewers were no exception. The bullpen was consistently effective, and the right side of the infield was very strong.
Biggest Weaknesses
Largely due to a difficult year from Joey Ortiz, Milwaukee ranked 26ᵗʰ in WAA from the shortstop position. Ortiz was the only everyday player to post an OPS below league average. As a team, the Brewers also struggled somewhat against power pitching, finishing with just a .684 OPS in those situations.
Key Additions
It was an active offseason for the Brewers, with Kyle Harrison, Angel Zerpa, David Hamilton, Brandon Sproat, and Jett Williams arriving via trade. Luis Rengifo and Gary Sánchez signed as free agents.
Prospects Likely to Contribute
Logan Henderson, ranked 88ᵗʰ among all prospects, projects to make the rotation on Opening Day. Sproat isn’t far behind, and Sánchez’s role could be challenged by the soon-to-arrive Jeferson Quero.
Williams won’t be far away either if he can improve on the .718 OPS he posted in Triple-A last year. Robert Gasser and Coleman Crow are also expected to join the pitching staff at some point this season.
Key Losses
Losses do not get much bigger than an ace. Freddy Peralta was dealt to the Mets, but he was not the only Brewer on the move. Isaac Collins and Caleb Durbin were also traded, while Rhys Hoskins, Jose Quintana, and Tobias Myers all signed elsewhere.
Projected Lineup
Jackson Chourio
Brice Turang
William Contreras
Christian Yelich
Sal Frelick
Andrew Vaughn
Luis Rengifo
Garrett Mitchell
Joey Ortiz
Projected Pitching Staff
Rotation
Brandon Woodruff
Jacob Misiorowski
Logan Henderson
Kyle Harrison
Chad Patrick
Bullpen
Abner Uribe
Trevor Megill
Jared Koenig
Aaron Ashby
Angel Zerpa
Grant Anderson
DL Hall
Biggest Question Mark
How much does the offense regress? Milwaukee is unlikely to be an elite offensive team. The Brewers ranked 16ᵗʰ in xwOBA last season and 25ᵗʰ in ISO. High walk rates and low strikeout rates are usually a formula for offensive success, but the quality of contact suggests this could be a middling lineup in 2026.
Breakout Candidate
It’s difficult to pick a breakout candidate when so many players performed well in 2025. Jared Koenig had a strong season, but his 2026 could be even better if you look at his sky-high Stuff+ numbers on the fastball and curveball. He already generates plenty of soft contact, but he could significantly increase his whiff rate if he reduces his cutter usage and throws more curves.
Projected record: 82-80
Pittsburgh Pirates
2025 Recap
Final record: 71-91
Division finish: 5th
Biggest Strengths
Pittsburgh’s rotation ranked among the best in baseball, finishing 6ᵗʰ in both ERA and FIP. It wasn’t all because of Paul Skenes. Carmen Mlodzinski, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, and Bailey Falter also enjoyed strong seasons. The defense was another bright spot, ranking 8ᵗʰ in Outs Above Average.
Biggest Weaknesses
Pretty much everything else was below par. Only the Rockies had a worse wRC+. By Wins Above Average, the Pirates ranked in the bottom five in production from second base, catcher, center field, and DH.
Key Additions
The bar is usually on the floor when it comes to Pirates offseasons, so there was plenty of excitement when the front office actually tried to improve the big-league roster. Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna should elevate the lineup, while Gregory Soto and Mike Montgomery provide additional pitching depth.
Prospects Likely to Contribute
After pitching 31.1 big-league innings last season, Bubba Chandler should break camp with the Pirates. Konnor Griffin, the top prospect in baseball, probably will not be in the majors in March, but he could debut by April or May.
Tom Harrington and Hunter Barco should also log plenty of innings in the majors after brief stints in 2025.
Key Losses
Andrew McCutchen remains unsigned and could still return, though there is no obvious spot for him on the roster with Ozuna projected as the everyday DH. Mike Burrows and Johan Oviedo signed elsewhere in free agency.
Projected Lineup
Oneil Cruz
Brandon Lowe
Ryan O’Hearn
Marcell Ozuna
Bryan Reynolds
Spencer Horwitz
Nick Gonzales
Jared Triolo
Joey Bart
Projected Pitching Staff
Rotation
Paul Skenes
Bubba Chandler
Mitch Keller
Braxton Ashcraft
Jose Urquidy
Bullpen
Gregory Soto
Dennis Santana
Isaac Mattson
Justin Lawrence
Mason Montgomery
Carmen Mlodzinski
Evan Sisk
Biggest Question Mark
What will the top prospects do? This applies both to the current group, Griffin and Chandler, and to a former top prospect in Henry Davis. Griffin could be a massive upgrade over the 99 wRC+ projected from Nick Gonzales, while Chandler has legitimate ace potential.
Davis, meanwhile, is a former first overall pick who has posted a career -1.4 bWAR. Pittsburgh’s ceiling rises significantly if he becomes a productive player, especially considering his career .965 OPS in Triple-A.
Breakout Candidate
Braxton Ashcraft impressed in 26 appearances, including eight starts, last season. Being an above-average pitcher over a full season is a much tougher task, particularly now that big-league hitters have had a chance to adjust to him. He features a strong curveball, a solid slider, and a sinker that generates plenty of soft contact. The question is whether Ashcraft can carry that success over 150+ innings and push toward a sub-3.00 ERA.
Projected record: 84-78
St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Recap
Final record: 78-84
Division finish: 4th
Biggest Strengths
The Cardinals’ bullpen ranked 10ᵗʰ in ERA and 10ᵗʰ in Wins Above Average. A high groundball rate, third among all bullpens, was the foundation of their success. Led by Willson Contreras and Brendan Donovan, the right side of the infield was the strongest part of the position player group. The Cards were also tied with the Cubs for the best defense in the majors.
Biggest Weaknesses
Colorado was the only team with fewer WAA from its rotation. As a team, the Cardinals ranked 26ᵗʰ in walk rate. Away from first and second base, the lineup lacked above-average hitters, with much of its value coming from defense.
Key Additions
It was largely a selling offseason for the Cardinals, so most of the additions were prospects expected to help the club in 2027 and beyond. Ryne Stanek and Dustin May were the primary additions to the big-league roster.
Prospects Likely to Contribute
JJ Wetherholt, a leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year, projects as St. Louis’ Opening Day shortstop. Jimmy Cook is not far from getting opportunities behind the plate in the big leagues, and Blaze Jordan could see time at the infield corners.
Tink Hence, Quinn Matthews, and Ixan Henderson could all reach the majors in 2026, with the Redbirds likely eager to evaluate their pitching prospects.
Key Losses
Donovan and Contreras leave gaping holes in the St. Louis lineup. Nolan Arenado is back in the NL West after a long-awaited trade, and the rotation waved goodbye to the veteran duo of Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas. At the time of writing, there are only two players over 30 on the 40-man roster.
Projected Lineup
Lars Nootbar
Iván Herrera
Alec Burleson
Nolan Gorman
Masyn Winn
JJ Wetherholt
Jordan Walker
Yohel Pozo
Victor Scott II
Projected Pitching Staff
Rotation
Dustin May
Matthew Liberatore
Andre Pallante
Michael McGreevy
Kyle Leahy
Bullpen
JoJo Romero
Matt Svanson
Riley O’Brien
Ryne Stanek
Justin Bruihl
Matt Pushard
George Soriano
Biggest Question Mark
There aren’t many questions that will impact how many wins the Cardinals get in 2026. They are likely going to be bad regardless. The focus is on the longer term, which is why JJ Wetherholt’s performance will be pivotal. Chaim Bloom will also be hoping a couple of other young players break out.
Breakout Candidate
Riley O’Brien flew under the radar last year, partly because he only recorded six saves. Likely to get many more opportunities in 2026, O’Brien could garner far more attention this season.
He features an elite sinker and curveball and posted excellent groundball and barrel rates. An uptick in command could see him recognized as one of the best relievers in the sport.
Projected record: 69-93
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