It’s been quite awhile since we last checked in on the Premier League futures markets, but this is the perfect time to do it. With midweek fixtures in the books and the FA Cup taking center stage this weekend, the board is shifting and several markets are tightening.
Sportsbooks are offering deep futures markets right now, from league winner and relegation to top-four finishes and the Golden Boot race. With only a four-point gap at the top of the table and just three points separating 17th and 18th, there are several interesting betting angles across the board.
League Winner
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Arsenal: -450
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Manchester City: +250
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Aston Villa: +8000
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Manchester United: +8000
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Chelsea: +17500
Arsenal looked to be back on track with emphatic wins over Leeds and Sunderland, but a draw with Brentford on Thursday was a setback for the Gunners, leaving them just four points ahead of Manchester City in what is shaping up to be a tight title race.
City have taken 10 points from their last four league matches, and they could realistically win their next four before traveling to Chelsea and hosting Arsenal in mid-April.
Arsenal’s inconsistent Premier League returns in 2026 have left the door ajar for City. It will take a phenomenal run from Pep Guardiola’s team to win yet another Premier League title, but their experience in situations like this stands them in good stead. The pressure, meanwhile, couldn’t be much greater on Arsenal.
Faint hopes of an improbable title charge from Aston Villa have faded, despite Unai Emery’s team residing only three points behind City. They could yet have a major role to play, though, as they face City on the final weekend of the campaign.
It’s hard not to be tempted by City at +250. There’s no value backing Arsenal at their current price with such a small gap, plus the fact they face the prospect of a North London derby, Chelsea, and City in the next couple of months.
European Qualification
Top Five Finish Odds
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Aston Villa: -900
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Manchester United: -320
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Liverpool: -290
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Chelsea: -190
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Brentford: +850
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Newcastle: +2700
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Bournemouth: +5000
It looks like five Premier League clubs will qualify for the Champions League once again. Third-placed Aston Villa are eight points ahead of sixth. Manchester United, residing in fourth after a marked improvement under Michael Carrick, are only three points ahead of sixth-placed Liverpool.
Curiously, Liverpool have shorter odds than Chelsea for a top five finish, despite sitting two points behind the Blues. Since Liam Rosenior took over, Chelsea have put together a run of four wins and a draw. Their underlying numbers are solid at both ends of the pitch, too.
Brentford are having a brilliant season under Keith Andrews, and are only four points off fifth, but this feels like a case of six teams into five spots. Europa League qualification would still be a major success for the Bees.
Liverpool have been mightily inconsistent all year. It feels pretty unlikely Arne Slot will be at the club next season. The Reds still have a favourable run of matches coming up, though, while Chelsea have trips to the Emirates and Villa Park before next month’s international break.
Given they sit in fifth and the improvement under Rosenior has been clear, Chelsea are a good price to finish in the top five at -190. Liverpool are a difficult team to trust, consistently flirting with crisis.
Relegation
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Burnley: -20000
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West Ham: -175
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Nottingham Forest: +280
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Tottenham: +700
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Leeds: +1100
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Crystal Palace: +2000
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Brighton: +2200
Wolves (off the board) and Burnley are as good as relegated. Likely to get a new-manager bounce and with Fulham, Crystal Palace, and Nottingham Forest in their next five outings, Spurs should be fine.
West Ham, who have collected 10 of their last 15 available points, are in 18th as it stands. The Hammers are only three points behind Forest after the Midlands outfit sacked their third manager of the season. Leeds are six points above the relegation zone, contributing to their +1100 price.
West Ham’s upcoming schedule is tough. Their expected metrics are not reassuring. Forest, too, have poor underlying numbers, and are in a period of immense uncertainty after the firing of Sean Dyche.
The way West Ham have played of late makes Forest the better bet of the two. Europa League action will also further stretch this Forest squad.
We want to reserve a mention for Fulham at +8000. The West London side are on 34 points, but they are only narrowly above Forest in the expected points table. They have lost four of their last five matches and face West Ham and Forest in pivotal contests before the March international break. Don’t be surprised if Marco Silva’s team gets dragged into this scrap.
Golden Boot
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Erling Haaland: -1250
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Igor Thiago: +1400
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Antoine Semenyo: +5000
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Cole Palmer: +8000
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Hugo Ekitike: +8000
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Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, Jarrod Bowen, Joao Pedro, Viktor Gyokeres, Dominic Calvert-Lewin: +10000
Erling Haaland has scored five more goals than Igor Thiago and 12 more than anyone else. This is the least-interesting of all EPL futures markets.
A wager on the ‘winner without Haaland’ could be more interesting if that market is available at your sportsbook, as it allows us to look into the possibility of a late-season surge from Bryan Mbeumo, Joao Pedro, or Jarrod Bowen to overtake Thiago.
For now, the question is about the possibility of Haaland suffering a season-ending injury and if Thiago could score enough goals in the remaining matches to make up the difference.
Other Markets
An array of other futures are available. Bournemouth, for instance, are -210 to finish in the top half. Their expected points mark puts them comfortably in the top half of the table, so there’s value here, even though they are just a single point ahead of 11th.
Manchester United are +270 to be the winner without Arsenal and Manchester City. Is it far-fetched that the Red Devils gain six more points than Villa over the remaining games? Not really. The depth of Villa’s squad will be tested by Champions League commitments, while United are flying high under Carrick.
Villa are notably in the bottom half in expected points. Chelsea are only six points behind them. How often can you get +155 on a team with Chelsea’s talent, who are only one point behind fourth, to finish in the top four? It’s a bet worth considering with how they’ve played lately.
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