With the top two set to meet in the League Cup final this weekend and only seven or eight matches remaining, the Premier League season is entering its final stretch. It’s a good time to check in on the latest futures odds, including the title race, top-five finish, and relegation battle.
League Winner
Manchester City look like they may have missed their window. Draws against Nottingham Forest and West Ham have left them nine points behind Arsenal (-2500), albeit with a game in hand.
Had City taken care of business in those two matches, both of which they were heavily favored to win, the gap would be five points with one head-to-head still to come. Instead, the nine-point deficit now feels difficult to overcome, especially with Arsenal down to just seven matches remaining.
The Gunners have not been flawless. The performances have dipped at times since the turn of the year, but Mikel Arteta’s side has consistently found ways to win. That has given them just enough breathing room as the pressure builds down the stretch.
Champions League Qualification
Despite underwhelming performances from Premier League clubs in this year’s Champions League, the league is still likely to receive five spots in next season’s league phase.
Aston Villa (51 points), Liverpool (49), Chelsea (48), and Brentford (45) are battling for the final two places. Villa have lost three straight and have been in poor form in 2026. Liverpool remain inconsistent and have taken just one point from their last two matches. Chelsea have one league win in five and were routed by PSG in the Champions League.
Chelsea still have to face both Manchester clubs and Liverpool. Villa’s schedule is favorable in the short term but closes with matches against City and Liverpool. Liverpool’s run-in looks difficult, while Brentford could realistically take nine points from their next three.
Given the upcoming fixtures, +1600 on the Bees to finish in the top five offers solid value, and those odds could shorten quickly.
Villa’s -240 price looks far too short given their recent form. They sit just three points ahead of Chelsea and rank in the bottom half of the league in expected points this year, while Chelsea, Liverpool, and Brentford all grade out inside the top six.
Relegation
Wolves and Burnley (both -20000) are effectively relegated, sitting on 17 and 20 points, respectively. Burnley have taken five points from their last five matches, and Wolves have put together a string of improved performances, but it is too little, too late for both.
The final relegation spot looks set to come down to Leeds (32 points), Tottenham (30), West Ham (29), and Nottingham Forest (29). Spurs host Forest on March 22 and Leeds on May 9, while Leeds still have trips to West Ham and matchups against both bottom clubs.
West Ham are trending in the right direction, with just two defeats in their last nine league matches, and should have enough to stay up despite a difficult run-in. Forest, meanwhile, face the toughest schedule of the group and have not won a league match since January.
Igor Tudor may have bought himself some time with the draw at Anfield, but Spurs are still winless in 12 straight league matches and continue to deal with significant injuries. It is difficult to trust Tottenham right now, but the same can be said for Forest.
Leeds’ fixture list suggests they should be safe. As things stand, it feels like a two-team race between Spurs and Forest, even with West Ham currently sitting 18th.
At +230, Forest offer the best betting value to go down.
Without Arsenal & City
Sitting third and three points clear of fourth, Manchester United (-230) are the clear favorites in this market. The Red Devils have taken more points than any team in the league since Michael Carrick replaced Ruben Amorim, and they rank fourth in expected goals conceded over that stretch.
Over the same period, Aston Villa have managed just eight points from nine matches. The drop-off is not surprising after they significantly outperformed their underlying metrics in the first half of the season.
United’s remaining schedule is relatively favorable. Trips to Bournemouth and Chelsea stand out as the toughest fixtures, along with a home match against Liverpool. They have been playing at a high level in recent weeks and would likely need a noticeable drop-off to fall out of third, something that becomes far more plausible if Bruno Fernandes were to miss time.
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