Welcome back to 2026 Crush & Fade on Sandman Sports. This weekly series takes a look at the current PGA Tour stop, a quick recap of last week, and what is happening around the golf world.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Recap
What an all-time finish at TPC Scottsdale.
Hideki Matsuyama nearly stole it despite spraying his driver most of Sunday. He needed only par on 18 but tugged his tee shot into the left grandstands and made bogey. Chris Gotterup wasted no time in the playoff, taking down Matsuyama to secure his second win of the young season.
We cashed on most of our bets, and can officially say we are on a hot streak.
Si Woo Kim Top 5 at +450.
Pierceson Coody Top 10 at +385.
Maverick McNealy Top 20 at +125.
Let’s see if the momentum carries over to the Monterey Peninsula.
It was disappointing to hear fans yelling during critical moments as Hideki tried to close. Yes, it is the loudest hole in golf, but there is still a line. Even so, Hideki would likely admit that inconsistency off the tee cost him the trophy.
Scottie Scheffler opened with his worst round in years, battled just to make the cut, and still nearly won. He never ceases to impress.
Pebble Beach Preview
This is our first Signature Event of the season, and the field reflects it.
The event rotates between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill. Pebble is a par 72 just under 7,000 yards. Spyglass is a par 72 just over 7,000 yards. The primary defenses are small greens and, as always, the weather.
The forecast looks manageable until late Sunday, when wind and rain could show up. If that holds, expect plenty of birdies early and a possible grind to finish.
So who fits?
Sandman’s Crush Card
Scottie Scheffler has 18 consecutive Top 10 finishes on Tour. Seven of those were wins. That is absurd.
But at +300, there is little value.
For what it’s worth, two names caught my attention this week but didn’t quite make the card. Patrick Cantlay is 9 for 9 at Pebble with two Top 5s, and Jason Day is a remarkable 16 for 16 with five Top 5s.
Both certainly make strong cases, but I am looking elsewhere for the value. Here are my crush plays for this week:
Rory McIlroy +1300 to Win
Defending champion at -21 last year. Elite tee to green. If conditions stay soft, he can separate with birdie runs.
Justin Rose +470 to finish Top 5
Coming off a dominant win. His last three trips here: T3, T11, Win. Course fit and current form align.
Si Woo Kim +210 to finish Top 10
He continues to attack pins and convert chances. When he gets hot with the irons, he stacks finishes.
Shane Lowry +160 to finish Top 20
Finished T2 here last year and consistently plays well in coastal conditions.
Sandman’s Fade List
Fading is trickier in Signature Events because the field is so strong top to bottom. But one name stands out, and I am staying away from Ludvig Aberg (+3800 to Win, +280 Top 10, +125 Top 20).
He missed the cut at Farmers, withdrew at the American Express, and withdrew here last year after one round. Something feels slightly off, whether form or health.
Good luck this week Sandman Nation, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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