A Look Back at 2025
Regular Season: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)
Notable: Missouri is 0-14 in regular season games against power conference teams that finished with ten or more wins since 2018.
What Changed This Offseason
Key Departures:
OL: Keagen Trost (NFL)
DL: Damon Wilson II (Transfer), Zion Young (NFL)
LB: Josiah Trotter (NFL)
Key Additions:
QB: Austin Simmons (Ole Miss)
WR: Caden Lee (Ole Miss)
OL: Zach Owens (Miss. St.), Dominick Giudice (Michigan)
LB: Robert Woodyard Jr. (Auburn)
DB: Chris Graves Jr. (Ole Miss), Elijah Dotson (Michigan)
Coaching Changes:
OC: Chip Lindsey brings 28 years of coaching experience including offensive coordinator stints at Michigan, North Carolina, Auburn, Arizona State, UCF, and Southern Miss. He also served as head coach at Troy from 2019-21.
Breaking Down the Offense
Key Returners:
RB: Ahmad Hardy (All-SEC), Jamal Roberts
WR: Donovan Olugbode
TE: Brett Norfleet
OL: Cayden Green (All-SEC)
Strength: Passing Attack
This is more of a projection than a proven reality, but the pieces are in place. New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has built high-powered passing attacks everywhere he has coached, and Missouri did not bring him in to hand the ball off (even if that ends up being to Hardy). They have added legitimate speed on the outside at receiver and return a pair of bigger pass catchers from last season. If the quarterback situation stabilizes, this offense has the personnel to move the ball effectively through the air.
Biggest Question: Ahmad Hardy
Everything flows through what happens with Hardy. By all accounts, he is expected to return at some point after suffering a gunshot wound earlier this year, but the timeline and his condition remain uncertain. If he is limited or unavailable early in the season, this offense will need to form a new identity quickly. If he returns fully healthy, the ceiling on this unit rises considerably. No other question on the roster carries more weight than this one.
Breaking Down the Defense
Key Returners:
LB: Nicholas Rodriguez
DB: Santana Banner
Strength: Coaching
There is no true standout player on this side of the ball, but DC Corey Batoon has consistently produced top-tier SEC defenses since arriving in 2024. His units have excelled at rushing the passer and stopping the run, and there is little reason to expect that to change regardless of the personnel around him. Even without a marquee defender, Batoon's track record makes it difficult to doubt this unit.
Biggest Question: Who Steps Up
This roster is not particularly young, but it is also not fully proven. Robert Woodyard Jr. is expected to make a significant impact at linebacker and has the talent to earn All-SEC consideration. At corner, Chris Graves Jr. is likely to see the most snaps after being a solid contributor at Ole Miss. Along the defensive line, transfers Landon Kitchen, Jalen Marshall, and Marquis Gracial are all expected to play meaningful roles and will need to fill the void left by the departures up front.
X-Factor: Austin Simmons
With Hardy expected to miss at least the start of the season, Simmons will need to step into the role Missouri envisioned when they added him from the portal. He earned the starting job over Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss before suffering an ankle injury in the second game of last season, but the flashes he showed were encouraging. This is not a situation where he needs to operate at a Heisman level like Bryum Brown at Auburn, but he cannot be a game manager either. At only 20 years old, he is still developing, and how he handles the pressure could define Missouri's entire season.
Schedule Breakdown
Win total: 6.5 Over (-128) Under (+104)
Most likely wins: vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, vs. Troy, at Kansas
Kansas is the only potential slip-up in that group, but Missouri should handle all three.
Toughest stretch: vs. Texas, at Georgia
They do not need to win either game to hit the over, and recent history strongly suggests they will not. Missouri is 0-14 against power conference teams that finished with ten or more wins since 2018, and both Texas and Georgia fit that profile comfortably.
Potential Swing Games: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Florida, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Oklahoma
Missouri's season will likely be decided by how it performs against the middle of its SEC schedule. If the Tigers lose every game against projected winning teams, as they have consistently done against this caliber of opponent since 2018, they are likely looking at a six-win season. To exceed expectations, they'll need to pull at least one upset.
Florida is worth watching closely. The Gators may be much improved this season, although Missouri does have the benefit of getting this one in Columbia. Even so, home-field advantage only goes so far when the recent track record against quality opponents has been this underwhelming.
Final Outlook
Nothing about this Missouri roster truly jumps off the page. With Hardy sidelined to start the season, there is no obvious difference-maker to rely on. That does not necessarily mean one won’t emerge, and the coaching staff is capable enough to scheme this team into wins without a star-driven roster. But in the SEC, having a player or two who can tilt a game in your favor matters, and most of the teams above them on the food chain have exactly that.
The 6.5 win total is intriguing given Missouri has won eight, ten, and eleven games over the past three seasons. On paper, wins over the non-conference slate, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Arkansas are reasonable projections. Beyond that, the expectation is one additional win at most, and that feels fair given how many of their remaining opponents finished above .500 last year, with several making the playoff.
The number of new pieces is a legitimate concern. On another roster with a less proven coaching staff, a rebuild of this scale would be cause to project a missed bowl game entirely. The difference is Eli Drinkwitz, who has done an excellent job building this program over the past three seasons. But his teams have consistently come up short against top-tier SEC competition, and this roster does not offer a compelling reason to think that changes in 2026.
We are taking the under at 6.5 and projecting a 5-7 finish. Kentucky or Arkansas will outperform expectations, and Missouri does not beat Texas, Georgia, or Texas A&M.
Prediction: 5-7 (Under +104)
Up Next: Oklahoma
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