It’s been a long season of hits and misses, flops and finds, and now we’re finally here. The Super Bowl, the mecca of football betting, will be played on Sunday, and we’re coming off a pretty solid warm up in the Conference Championships. Pulling off a 2-1 record, we landed our Seattle moneyline and the Pats/Broncos total, though our Patriots spread got buried in the snowstorm.
This week, we’re changing up the format slightly. Instead of passing on a bad line, we’re going with a Super Bowl classic and taking a swing at the best and most interesting prop on the board. Outside of that, we’re making our usual picks on the moneyline, spread, and total. With only one game on the docket, the margin for error is zero.
So let’s break it down: who we like, how much we like them, and how we expect this game to play out.
Super Bowl Moneyline Pick
Seattle Seahawks (-235 vs New England Patriots)
As exciting as the Super Bowl always is, this year’s matchup feels a bit uneven. Seattle has been red hot through the playoffs, blowing out the 49ers before punching its ticket to the Super Bowl with an instant classic against LA.
Meanwhile, New England’s offense has looked shaky. Drake Maye hasn’t played at his regular season pace, and the Patriots have survived largely on defense and a little bit of luck. The Bo Nix injury was another reminder that availability matters, but even then, New England barely scraped by.
Based on how these two teams have looked recently, Seattle is the pick to win it all
Super Bowl Spread Pick
New England Patriots (+4.5 vs Seattle Seahawks)
After everything I just said in the moneyline section, this spread bet probably looks a little strange. If Seattle is such a strong favorite, why take the Patriots plus the points?
There are two reasons: New England’s defense and smart hedging.
The Patriots defense has been outstanding, and while I still like Seattle to win if New England plays its best game, there’s a very real path to this staying close. If this turns into a defensive battle and Seattle wins by a field goal, we cash both tickets.
And if New England pulls the upset, the spread cushions the loss on the moneyline. There’s nothing wrong with a strategic hedge, even in the final week of the football season.
Super Bowl Over/Under Pick
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Under 45.5)
This is the easiest pick of the three. New England’s offense has struggled, and they’re facing one of the top defenses in the league. They’ve been in this spot before, but the difference here is that Sam Darnold isn’t likely to hand them a series of short fields.
Seattle has looked strong offensively, but asking both teams to clear 20 points feels optimistic. Even if Seattle reaches 30, the Under still has room to breathe. Defense wins championships and covers unders. Don’t overthink it.
Super Bowl Prop Bet
Color of Gatorade Bath: Yellow/Lime or Green (+360)
There are plenty of player props and data driven angles you can attack, but where’s the fun in that?
Gatorade color is a Super Bowl classic, and there’s a surprising amount of research available on historical trends. I’m choosing to keep this one light.
I’ve got Seattle winning, which means Mike Macdonald is likely taking the Gatorade bath. Orange sits as the favorite, but Yellow or Green comes next on the board. So why go with it?
Think about Seattle. Their uniforms, their branding, that neon yellow green pop. That’s honestly enough for me.
Does it make perfect sense? Probably not. But in an event where betting can get overly intense, a fun prop is the perfect counterbalance. Set your lines, pick a prop that makes you smile, then sit back and enjoy the game.
Thanks for following along with Three Picks and a Pass (Prop) this season. Have an awesome Super Bowl and an even better offseason.
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