Now that the knockout bracket is set, the United States knows what its path might look like over the next several matches. The knockout rounds start with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and that could just be the first of several European sides standing in the way.
That's a real concern. The United States has famously struggled against UEFA members, losing 11 in a row to European sides, and it hasn't beaten a UEFA member since defeating Northern Ireland 2-1 in 2021.
To be fair, the US doesn't get many chances to face European opposition. Competitive matches against UEFA sides come almost exclusively in the World Cup or the Confederations Cup, and the Americans have struggled badly in World Cup play against Europe specifically. Since the Miracle on Grass against England in 1950, the USMNT has tallied one win, seven draws, and 13 defeats against European teams at the tournament. Beating Portugal in 2002 remains the only World Cup win the Americans have over European opposition in 76 years.
None of that history will matter much if the US falls short against Bosnia. Here's a look at the path ahead.
Round of 32 vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
The Dragons came third in an unimpressive Group A. Bosnia took advantage of Canada missing Jonathan David to snatch a point off the co-hosts, then routed Qatar to advance out of the group stage. Bosnia is well practiced at playing for a draw, having done so five times in seven matches in 2026.
The United States needs to attack early in this match. They cannot afford to risk penalties against Bosnia, a team that would carry plenty of confidence into a shootout. To reach the World Cup in the first place, Bosnia had to beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.
Beating Italy from the spot meant beating goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, one of the best keepers in the world. The Bosnians will have no fear whatsoever if this match goes beyond 90 minutes. The Americans have to find a goal early.
If they fall here, there is no way to view this World Cup as anything but a disappointment. Surviving a soft group means little if the US exits at the first knockout hurdle.
Round of 16 vs. Belgium/Senegal
Belgium is a big name, but the Red Devils are not the same side that beat the USMNT in 2014 in Brazil. Belgium's golden generation is long gone, and the team has yet to find a true replacement for its biggest former stars.
If the US draws Belgium, the Americans would have to be considered the favorite. Even though Belgium sits ninth in the world and blitzed New Zealand, the team hasn't looked especially sharp in this tournament.
Senegal is more of a wild card. The Lions of Teranga went 1-2 in their group matches, but they shared a group with France and Norway. Senegal rebounded by hammering Iraq to reach the knockout stage, and the team will play with nothing to lose. Unlike Belgium, which sees this tournament as a last real opportunity, Senegal carries no such pressure. The country has reached the quarterfinals only once, the best African result before Morocco's run to the semifinals.
A match against Belgium would look harder on paper. In practice, Senegal is probably the more difficult draw. Exiting here could still be seen as an acceptable result, depending on how the match unfolds.
Quarterfinals vs. Spain/Portugal/Croatia/Austria
There's no way around it. The USMNT would have to face a UEFA side here. The preferred matchup would be Croatia. They were fortunate to finish second in a group with Panama and Ghana, and this tournament may have come a cycle too late for that core group to make a legitimate run.
The worst case would be Spain. Even with a draw against Cabo Verde, Spain looks excellent, fully capable of winning the tournament outright and would be heavily favored against the Americans.
Portugal, as talented as it is, is an opponent the USMNT has actually had success against historically. The Americans would like their chances there, as they would against Austria. Success at this stage should be measured against the opponent. Losing to Spain or Portugal here would be understandable. Losing to Austria or Croatia would not be.
Semifinals vs. France/Sweden/Morocco/Canada/Paraguay
The dream opponent would obviously be Paraguay, but that outcome seems virtually impossible. Paraguay was not supposed to beat Germany, yet France looks far superior this time around, and Canada is not expected to advance past the round of 16 either.
The most probable opponent here is France or Morocco. Either would represent a major test for the Americans, one that's likely a step too far at this stage. Simply reaching this round would already make the tournament an unquestioned success.
Final
Argentina and England look the most probable teams to reach the other side of the bracket. Brazil remains possible too, but this half of the draw appears to be the weaker one overall.
Both Brazil and England face difficult roads ahead. Brazil has roughly even odds of meeting Norway, a team they have never beaten. England is expected to face Mexico at the Azteca in Mexico City.
Argentina, meanwhile, appears to have a clear path to the semifinals. None of the seven teams in their quarter look capable of seriously challenging them. Colombia and Switzerland stand out as the strongest possibilities, but that's still a tall order for either side. Expect the Albiceleste to be waiting for whichever of Brazil or England comes through.
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