Many of the sport’s top prospects have made immediate impacts in the first few weeks of the 2026 MLB season. Detroit broke camp with Kevin McGonigle, Konnor Griffin signed a mega deal with the Pirates, and Sal Stewart has helped carry the Reds’ lineup.
There’s still plenty of season left, but one full month in offers a natural checkpoint to assess how the Rookie of the Year races are developing.
American League Rookie of the Year Race
1. Kevin McGonigle
McGonigle has been the early standard in the AL, producing 0.4 more fWAR than any other rookie. He’s walked more than he’s struck out and is hitting .330, a start that’s exceeded even the most optimistic expectations in Detroit.
The concerns are on the margins. His defense has been among the worst in the league, and there are signs pitchers may begin to adjust. McGonigle has just a .250 xwOBA against breaking balls, which could lead to fewer fastballs and tougher at-bats in the coming weeks.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Murakami is off to an extreme start to the season. He has 12 non-homer hits, all singles, while leading the majors with 11 home runs. He’s also struck out more than any hitter in the American League.
The profile comes with plenty of swing-and-miss, but it’s working so far. The high whiff rate is paired with strong bat speed and legitimate power, and Murakami’s natural patience continues to show up in the form of consistent walks.
3. Parker Messick
Messick is finding success through the depth of his arsenal. He’s a true six-pitch hurler without a single dominant offering, but Cleveland has done a nice job sequencing his pitches, and he has enough command to keep the walks in check.
It’s fair to question whether he has the season-long upside to win this award, but a 2.54 FIP is hard to ignore.
National League Rookie of the Year Race
1. Sal Stewart
Only 10 hitters in the league have a better xwOBA than Stewart. Among National League rookies, only Moisés Ballesteros, in nearly half the plate appearances, has produced a higher wRC+.
Stewart has also separated himself with power, as his nine home runs are four more than any other NL rookie. The gap between the Reds’ first baseman and the rest of the field is significant right now. The one concern is his below-average bat speed, but as it stands, he would almost certainly take home this award if voting was done today.
2. Nolan McLean
McLean has the edge over Stewart in fWAR, backed by a 2.27 xERA and a strikeout rate north of 30%. In a rough month for the Mets, he’s been one of the few bright spots.
The lack of run support doesn’t hurt his candidacy. McLean’s WHIP sits at 0.849, his command has taken a step forward from last year, and his 113 Pitching+ is borderline elite.
3. JJ Wetherholt
Wetherholt hasn’t matched Stewart’s offensive output so far, but he’s still put together an impressive start. Strong defense, a 75th percentile xwOBA, and five home runs give him a well-rounded resume.
He’s also drawing walks at an above-average rate without excessive strikeouts. Offspeed pitches have been his biggest issue, but there are plenty of encouraging signs in his overall offensive profile.
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