As we bleed into week two of this young 2026 W season, it’s taken roughly ten days to flip a few preseason assumptions and produce more than one highlight reel worth saving. The 30th anniversary season tipped off Friday, May 8 with big money on the table, a new collective bargaining agreement, and the league’s first billion-dollar franchise, with the Golden State Valkyries notching a first for women’s sports teams overall.
The intensity continued into Week 2 with Friday night lights out for odds-on repeat MVP A’ja Wilson, who scored 45 points in the Las Vegas Aces’ 101-94 win over the Connecticut Sun. Caitlin Clark hit a buzzer-tying three with 1.7 seconds left to force overtime in the Indiana Fever’s 104-102 loss to the Washington Mystics. The expansion Portland Fire announced themselves with a buzzer-beating upset of the championship-favorite New York Liberty. Olivia Miles made WNBA history before her third game tipped off. It’s going to be a fun summer of women’s hoops.
Living Up to the Hype…For the Most Part
The New York Liberty walked into 2026 with one of the offseason’s loudest rosters. Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and rookie Satou Sabally vaulted them to the top of the championship board. Through four games they’re 3-1 and looking the part most nights. Their opener was a 106-75 dismantling of the Connecticut Sun in which Stewart dropped 31 points and pulled down 10 boards. Their second was a 98-93 overtime road win at Washington, with Marine Johannes hitting six threes and scoring 25 points despite several injuries sidelining the top of the roster. The overall talent still says they’re the team to beat despite the stumble against the Fire.
The Las Vegas Aces, despite the ring-night humiliation, have now ripped off four straight wins. They bounced back from a brutal season-opening loss to the Phoenix Mercury, 99-66, with a 105-78 win over the LA Sparks last Sunday, May 10. They followed that with back-to-back wins over the Connecticut Sun on Wednesday, 98-69, and Friday, 101-94, before edging the Atlanta Dream 85-84 on Chelsea Gray’s jumper with 3.6 seconds left Sunday afternoon. The Aces are already pacing for a huge offensive year after shooting 62 percent from the field against the Sparks, the second-best shooting performance in franchise history. Wilson also tied Lisa Leslie for the third-fastest climb to 2,500 career rebounds in WNBA history, reaching the mark in just 269 games.
Phoenix delivered exactly what the preseason scouting report promised, except maybe sooner than most expected. The Aces may have swept them 4-0 in last year’s Finals, but the Mercury arrived with a score to settle. The rematch took center stage during opening weekend, and though Phoenix entered as a 9.5-point underdog at DraftKings, the Mercury slammed the door with a convincing 99-66 win. Alyssa Thomas scored 20 points while rookie Jovana Nogic, who is off to a scorching start, dropped 19 while shooting 3-for-3 from deep. Phoenix dropped two of its next three games, but Thomas is already building an early MVP case after posting 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 11 assists in the disappointing 95-79 loss to the Valkyries, then following it with 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists in a win over the Chicago Sky, 91-83. Phoenix made it clear immediately that this is not some one-and-done Finals run.
Caitlin Clark now has three different headline performances already. In her opener, Clark posted 20 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds while drilling a deep three at the buzzer that would have forced overtime against a loaded young Dallas Wings team that escaped with a 107-104 win. On Wednesday she followed with 24 points and 9 assists in the Fever’s first win of 2026 against the Sparks, 87-78. Friday’s 32-point near-comeback became the heartbreaker, with Clark pouring in 32 points and adding 8 assists against Washington. Indiana finally answered Sunday with an 89-78 win over Seattle, with Clark posting 21 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds as the Fever earned their first home victory of the season. The Fever may be just 2-2, but Clark is healthy, scoring, and creating opportunities for everyone around her.
Olivia Miles also deserves a spot in the lived-up-to-the-hype category. Listed at +280 for Rookie of the Year on draft night, her odds have already shifted to -220 at DraftKings. Through the opening stretch, Miles became the first rookie in WNBA history to record 30-plus points and 15-plus assists across her first two career games. She exploded onto the scene against Atlanta with 21 points, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Three games into the season, the Lynx are 2-1 and the Rookie of the Year odds at DraftKings and FanDuel have completely flipped. Miles is now the favorite at most books over Azzi Fudd, who is off to a slow start.
The Surprises
The loudest result of the week was Tuesday’s upset of the Liberty by the Fire, 98-96, on a Sarah Ashlee Barker putback at the buzzer. Yes, an expansion team beat the championship favorite. The atmosphere in Portland certainly helped, with 19,335 fans packing the Moda Center, the second-highest attendance total for a WNBA game. Of course, the Liberty came back two days later and responded with a 100-82 win over the Fire. Still, the Portland upset is the kind of opening-week shakeup that reminds everyone the middle of this league is real. Talent can erupt anywhere on any night. Pauline Astier, the Liberty’s French rookie, already has 67 points through four games, making her the first Liberty rookie since Sophia Witherspoon in 1997 to score 60 points in her first three games. That also puts her alongside Candace Parker, Tamika Catchings, and Clark in early rookie scoring company.
The Atlanta Dream may be surprising some people, but not me. They are 2-1 and already looking like the sleeper contender I expected based on roster talent alone, especially after the addition of Angel Reese. Atlanta stunned the Minnesota Lynx, 91-90, in its season opener Saturday, May 9. Reese’s third block of the night on Emese Hof’s layup attempt as time expired sealed the win. The Dream followed that up with a 77-72 win over Dallas behind four double-figure scorers: Allisha Gray with 26 points, Jordin Canada with 19, Rhyne Howard with 14, and Reese adding 12 points and 16 rebounds for her 51st career double-double. Atlanta then nearly knocked off Las Vegas before Chelsea Gray’s late jumper handed the Dream their first loss of the season. Atlanta’s championship odds had already shortened from +1400 to +600 throughout the offseason after landing Reese, and early returns suggest the hype may have been justified.
Then there’s Dallas. The Wings may still be a year or two away from true championship contention, but the rebuilt roster featuring Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, No. 1 pick Azzi Fudd, plus offseason additions Odyssey Sims and Jessica Shepard walked into Gainbridge Fieldhouse and delivered a 100-point opener by both teams. Ogunbowale led the way with 22 points while Bueckers added 20 on 8-for-10 shooting. Dallas then dropped consecutive games to Atlanta, 77-72, and Minnesota, 90-86, to fall to 1-2 entering Week 2. Their next challenge comes Monday, May 18, at home against the Mystics. The talent is obvious, but the consistency still is not there. Maybe the biggest development so far is how quiet Fudd has been. She scored just three points in the opener and missed the Atlanta game entirely. Once she starts heating up, expect the Wings to rise with her.
The Championship Board: Holding Steady, But Watch the Edges
After the opening weekend, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Liberty at +205 to win the 2026 title, with defending champion Aces at +340 and the Fever at +550.
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