This is part of our 2026 Olympic Hockey Group Preview series: Group B | Group C
Hockey is always one of the most anticipated events of the Winter Olympics, and this year is no different. For the first time in over a decade, NHL talent returns to the Olympic stage, immediately raising the level of play and reshaping the pecking order. With three group-stage games setting the table before the knockout rounds begin, let’s break down each group and evaluate every team’s chances in Milan Cortina.
We begin with Group A, where a clear favorite emerges but the race for second could be tight.
On paper, this group could not have set up much better for Canada.
The Canadians have not won gold since 2014, but they enter with the strongest outlook in Group A. Not only do they possess the most overall talent, they also get their toughest matchup out of the way immediately against Czechia.
For Czechia and Switzerland, the path is more complicated. Both will likely battle in their final group game for positioning. As for France, the weakest team in the tournament is here to simply round out the field. The French are in the Olympics for the first time since 2002, when they finished 14th, a placement that no longer exists under the current format.
Here is a look at each team and its best- and worst-case scenarios.
Canada
This is a stacked roster from top to bottom. Canada boasts elite forwards, high-end defensemen, and game-breaking speed. It has not failed to win gold in an Olympics featuring NHL players since 2006. The league did not participate in 2018 or 2022, and Canada was clearly diminished without its best.
Now, with Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and a loaded supporting cast, the talent gap is obvious.
The only real question is in goal. Jordan Binnington has delivered in big moments before, but this season has been uneven. He played well in last year’s 4 Nations Faceoff, and Canada does not need him to steal games. It simply needs him to avoid losing them.
Canada will likely use the preliminary round to let Binnington settle in and build confidence before the elimination stage. If he is steady, the rest of the roster can carry the weight.
Best case: Canada captures another gold medal.
Worst case: An off-night in the net leads to a semifinal upset.
Czechia
What Canada has in skating, Czechia has in goaltending.
The Czechs have long been known for elite play between the pipes, dating back to Dominik Hasek’s gold-medal run in 1998. That identity still defines them.
They open against Canada, which may actually help. Getting the tournament favorite out of the way early allows Czechia to focus on France before what could be a must-win game against Switzerland.
Up front, David Pastrnak and Martin Necas provide high-end skill, but depth remains the concern. Czechia cannot match Canada line for line, so it must lean on discipline and timely goaltending.
Best case: Czechia earns a favorable draw and skates its way to a bronze medal.
Worst case: Lack of depth catches up, and it exits in the first knockout round.
Switzerland
Switzerland will have to win with structure and defense.
Jonas Siegenthaler and Roman Josi anchor the blue line, while Nico Hischier provides strong two-way presence up front. The formula is simple: limit mistakes, avoid penalties, and keep games tight.
Like Czechia, Switzerland lacks elite depth. It cannot hope to match Canada beyond its top line or two, and unnecessary penalties would be costly against high-powered offenses.
The Swiss open against France, which makes that game critical. Building goal differential early could be decisive before facing Canada in the middle match and Czechia to close group play.
Best case: Switzerland secures second in the group and advances to the semifinals.
Worst case: A loss to Czechia sends them out in the first knockout stage.
France
France enters the tournament due to Russia’s ban, and expectations are modest.
The roster includes just two NHL players, and its most recognizable name is 40-year-old Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. France is not a traditional hockey power and does not possess the depth or high-end skill of the top nations.
The lone scheduling advantage is that France faces Canada last. There is a scenario where Canada rotates its lineup, but even a reserve-heavy Canadian squad would hold a significant edge.
When evaluating the group as a whole, France is clearly overmatched. Avoiding last place would qualify as a successful tournament.
Best case: France avoids finishing last in the group.
Worst case: Three lopsided losses.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
