This is part of our 2026 Olympic Hockey Group Preview series: Group A | Group C
The first major upset of the men’s Olympic ice hockey tournament in Milan Cortina came in the opening game. Defending gold medalist Finland is already 0-1 after dropping its first match to Slovakia.
Of course, it’s still early. The Finns have an entirely different roste../2026-olympic-hockey-group-b-preview-slovakia-sends-a-warning-shot/r than in 2022 with the return of NHL players, and they still have two games to right the ship. In this format, Finland cannot be eliminated in the group stage; it only determines how difficult their knockout path will be, with the worst case being a much stronger first opponent.
Slovakia knows that path well. In Beijing, Slovakia finished third behind Finland and Sweden in its group, forcing the Slovaks into the qualification playoff. There, they beat Germany and stunned top-seeded United States. The Slovaks took bronze after falling to Finland a second time, and finally solving the Finns on Wednesday shows that medal was no fluke.
This group has turned, with Sweden now the favorite and Slovakia close behind. Unlike Group A, where a clear favorite emerged from the start, Group B has already introduced volatility and reshaped the medal picture.
Here is a look at each team and its best- and worst-case scenarios.
Finland
Was the loss to Slovakia a sign of trouble for Suomi, or is this group more even than originally thought? Finland outshot Slovakia comfortably but still ended up on the wrong end of the scoreline. That reveals two things about the Finnish team.
First, the Finnish attackers will figure it out. Sebastian Aho has to get more than one shot on goal, but this team has too much talent to score only once per night. When you put 40 shots on net and only one finds twine, that’s an unlucky day for the shooters.
But the goaltending concerns are real. Juuso Saros faced just 24 shots before Finland pulled him for the extra skater, yet three beat him. Finland is not Canada; it cannot succeed without strong goaltending.
With the loss to Slovakia, avoiding the qualification round will now be difficult. That opens the door to an early exit.
Best case: Finland shakes off the defeat and medals again.
Worst case: Finland finishes third in the group and exits in the quarterfinals.
Italy
The only team that had a worse opening morning than Finland was Italy, because Slovakia’s win was disastrous for the host nation. Italy was already up against it, as the host country does not have a single NHL player on its roster in a group full of hockey powers. With Slovakia now three points ahead, every point becomes critical.
There is not much to like about this Italian side. The roster skews older, with most players over 30. They are multiple steps behind their competition in both skill and speed. Everything has to go right just to steal a point. Having the crowd behind them helps, but it is difficult to see a path beyond simply extending their tournament by one game.
Best case: Italy forces one of the favorites to overtime and avoids a last-place finish.
Worst case: Italy gets blown out in all four tournament games.
Slovakia
Group B has opened up for Slovakia.
Juraj Slafkovsky picked up where he left off in 2022, scoring twice in a 4-1 win over Finland. Now the Slovaks can realistically think bigger, because they might not need to beat Sweden to top the group.
The schedule also helps. With Italy next, Slovakia can manage minutes and rotate players to stay fresh for Sweden. If Sweden stumbles against Finland, Slovakia could realistically win the group with seven points.
Winning the group matters. Slovakia likely lacks the defensive depth to slow down Canada or the United States in a knockout setting. Samuel Hlavaj of the Iowa Wild played well against Finland, but an AHL goaltender may struggle against one of the tournament favorites. Still, if Slovakia wins Group B, it would not face one of those powers until the semifinals.
Best case: Slovakia tops Group B and returns to the podium.
Worst case: Slovakia draws the wrong quarterfinal matchup and exits before the semifinals.
Sweden
Sweden’s job just became more complicated, but the Swedes still possess the talent and goaltending to control this group.
With three NHL-caliber goaltenders in Jacob Markstrom, Filip Gustavsson, and Jesper Wallstedt, Sweden has netminding that Finland and Slovakia cannot match. The blue line features experienced leaders in Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman.
The offense is slightly less certain. Lucas Raymond and William Nylander are reliable scorers, but the rest of Sweden’s attack can be inconsistent. That matters in Group B, because Sweden likely needs a top-five overall finish to avoid an early meeting with Canada or the United States.
The first two games are crucial, as Sweden finishes group play against Slovakia. A strong showing against Italy and a steady performance against Finland would set up a decisive final game.
Best case: Sweden surges in the medal round and captures Olympic gold.
Worst case: Sweden finishes third in Group B and exits in the quarterfinals.
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