The Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers are favored to win their respective divisions. Only one team, the Dodgers at -700, is shorter than +100.
Predicting division winners before the season begins is far from an exact science. Outsiders often go on to win the division, and it’s very rare that all six preseason favorites are still on top when the 162-game season wraps up.
Because of that, there’s betting value to be found among the longshots. Toronto and Milwaukee won the AL East and NL Central as underdogs last year. Which teams could repeat that in 2026? Let’s take a look.
Baltimore Orioles (+475)
Following a nightmare start to last season, the Orioles went 56-51 from May 28 on. During the offseason, this team added Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, and Blaze Alexander to the lineup.
Chris Bassitt and Shane Baz reinforce the rotation, which now also features a healthy Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers. In the bullpen, Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge help offset the absence of Félix Bautista.
Yes, it’s a big ask for Baltimore to jump from 75 wins to AL East champions. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are all capable of winning 90-plus games.
Still, there is a very real path. The Orioles could field a top-five offense and a top-10 rotation. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are the next wave of position player talent, Gunnar Henderson is healthy, and a bounceback season from Colton Cowser is a reasonable expectation.
After winning 101 games in 2023 and 91 in 2024, last year’s 75-win season looks more like a blip than a trend for this core. The roster has been upgraded on both sides of the ball, and Baltimore is a legitimate threat to win the division.
Cincinnati Reds (+370)
Milwaukee isn’t going to win 97 games again. Chicago had a strong offseason, but losing Kyle Tucker makes them beatable in what still looks like a weak NL Central.
Cincinnati didn’t make any blockbuster moves. Their biggest signing, Eugenio Suarez, was one of the more overrated free agents on the market, and the offense will rely heavily on Noelvi Marte, Sal Stewart, and Matt McLain taking a step forward.
Where the Reds really have upside is on the mound. This rotation could realistically be top three in baseball, with Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott leading the way, backed by Nick Lodolo, Chase Burns, and Brady Singer.
Brock Burke, Pierce Johnson, and Caleb Ferguson were solid bullpen additions, and they’ll hope JJ Bleday can bring some power back to the lineup if he regains his 2024 form.
Cincinnati won’t need 100 wins to take this division. If the Cubs tread water, 92 or 93 could be enough.
Athletics (+1600)
At the longest odds of our three picks, this isn’t just a nod to the solid core the Athletics have, it’s also a wager on a weak AL West. Houston is less talented than it was 12 months ago, and Texas is relying on two injury-prone veterans in Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.
Seattle could be a 100-win juggernaut, but they only won 90 games in 2025, and the division opens up quickly if anything goes wrong in the Pacific Northwest.
It’s not outlandish to suggest the Athletics could be the second-best team in the division. Maybe they get hot while Seattle stumbles, or a run of pitching injuries derails the Mariners.
Depth Charts projects every one of the A’s regular position players to be above league average except Max Muncy and Denzel Clarke, and it’s far too early to write either off based on their minor league production.
With Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, and company, this lineup could be top 10 in baseball. The rotation isn’t a strength, but Gage Jump, Jack Perkins, and Gunnar Hoglund headline a group of young arms that at least gives them depth behind the veterans.
*Odds from Draft Kings as of February 21, 2026
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
