More than a month into the season, we’re starting to get a more in-depth picture of which players will be in the MVP race. Early hot streaks have leveled off, and most stat lines are beginning to normalize.
Here are the leading candidates for AL and NL MVP as of May 6:
AL
1. Ben Rice
Rice was great in 2025. In 2026, he’s been on another level, leading baseball in wRC+ and posting the joint-highest fWAR in the AL. He ranks in the 99th percentile in xwOBA and has been somewhat unlucky to have just seven home runs so far.
He’s shown improved patience, cutting down his swing rate, and has been effective against every pitch type. The only real criticism at this point comes from his defensive metrics.
2. Aaron Judge
Judge and Munetaka Murakami are tied for the AL home run lead. This is nothing new for Judge, who entered the season as the clear favorite for the award and will remain so unless he misses time.
There are a few marginal signs of decline, including a slight dip in bat speed and a higher chase rate. Still, the Yankees’ superstar is barreling his way toward another dominant season and potentially a fourth MVP.
3. Shea Langeliers
Yordan Alvarez has cooled off enough to fall out of the top three. Langeliers, meanwhile, leads the AL in hits, ranks fourth in fWAR, and has spent much of his time at DH on his off days.
Langeliers is a strong defender with an elite pop time, and he’s taken a step forward at the plate with a career-high walk rate and improved swing efficiency. The 96th percentile xwOBA may come down, but the underlying profile points to a potential six-win season.
NL
1. Matt Olson
After a couple of down years by his standards, Olson is leading the majors in bWAR and ranks second in the NL in wRC+. He’s elevating the ball far more than in the past two seasons and has posted his highest bat speed since 2023.
The whiffs are still there, and his defense remains poor. Still, this level of offensive production outweighs most of that, and Olson’s track record suggests it could be sustainable.
2. Max Muncy
Tied for the third-best wRC+ in the National League, Muncy belongs firmly in this top three. In a loaded Dodgers lineup, he’s outperformed Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman.
Muncy hasn’t made any drastic changes. It’s the same trademark formula: a high walk rate, strong plate discipline, and consistently capitalizing when he gets his pitch.
3. Elly De La Cruz
Olson is the only NL hitter with more fWAR than De La Cruz. The Reds’ superstar is tied for 12th in wRC+, with eight stolen bases and 10 home runs already. A 40-40 season is very much within reach.
There aren’t many players with a legitimate shot at beating a healthy Ohtani for MVP. De La Cruz is one of them, thanks to his power-speed combination.
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