More than two months of the 2026 MLB season have now been completed. That’s a decent sample size to analyze the AL and NL MVP races.
AL
1. Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is 1.2 fWAR behind the AL lead, but he owns the best wRC+ in baseball by a comfortable margin. A fully healthy Alvarez has long been capable of a season this dominant, and Aaron Judge’s relatively slow start has left the AL MVP race wide open.
There simply haven’t been many holes in Alvarez’s profile so far. He ranks in the 100th percentile in xwOBA and has posted his lowest whiff rate since 2020.
2. Bobby Witt Jr.
Witt Jr.’s wRC+ sits at just 134. Still, the Royals’ shortstop has opened up a sizable fWAR lead thanks to 16 stolen bases and elite defense, while also carrying a 27-point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA that points toward some poor luck offensively.
After a quieter start, Witt has begun looking much more like himself. He owns a .922 OPS in May, and reaching 15 outs above average before June is ridiculous territory. He’s pulling the ball in the air less often than in the past, but the barrel rate remains excellent.
3. Shea Langeliers
Langeliers has outproduced Munetaka Murakami in wRC+ and is ahead of teammate Nick Kurtz in fWAR. Few things are as valuable as getting middle-of-the-order offense from a catcher.
Langeliers is in the 94th percentile in xwOBA, has phenomenal pop time, and slots in the 94th percentile in blocks. He’s also been solid at using his challenges, which is another factor to consider when evaluating catchers.
NL
1. Corbin Carroll
Carroll leads the National League in fWAR and sits narrowly behind James Wood in wRC+. Carroll has upped his walk rate significantly, he’s still got blazing speed, and he’s swinging faster than before.
The seven homers only tell a small part of the story. The Diamondbacks’ star is elevating the ball more frequently than in previous seasons, which suggests his power numbers will surge further. He’s also showing better selectiveness than last year and taking aggressive swings when he gets his pitch.
2. Drake Baldwin
Ranking sixth in outs prevented versus expected among catchers while producing the fourth-best wRC+ in the National League, there was no way Baldwin was missing out on the top three. The youngster has followed up an excellent rookie campaign with a spectacular all-around season, including ranking in the 98th percentile in xwOBA.
A legitimate case can be made that Baldwin has been the most valuable player in the National League to this point, given his role in Atlanta’s success. He has been productive enough offensively to already make 19 appearances at designated hitter.
3. Jordan Walker
Walker’s red-hot start wasn’t a flash in the pan. He’s been even better in May than he was in April, and he leads the National League in OPS+.
Pitch recognition remains a weakness. Walker still swings aggressively and whiffs at a high rate, but the contact quality is outstanding when he connects.
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