Rookie of the Year races are often more volatile than MVP and Cy Young. Players can arrive later in the season, and the award isn’t always as directly tied to overall value as some of the others.
At this stage, the challenge with putting together Rookie of the Year projections is balancing the extra volume some players have with others who have had fewer opportunities but excelled in smaller samples.
American League
1. Kevin McGonigle
Two AL rookies, Munetaka Murakami and Chase DeLauter, have a better wRC+ than Kevin McGonigle. The Tigers’ phenom tops the fWAR rankings, though, and has walked more than he’s struck out. He’s also swiped seven bases to go with a pair of homers.
It would be good to see the bat speed tick up a bit, but the offensive indicators remain very encouraging, including a 69th percentile hard-hit rate. McGonigle is trending toward a five-win campaign.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Kyle Schwarber is the only hitter with more big flies than Murakami’s 17. Murakami’s wRC+ ranks just outside the top 20 in baseball and sits comfortably ahead of every other rookie in either league.
The 26-year-old continues to fully embrace the power approach. Just 21 of his hits have stayed in the park. He ranks in the first percentile in whiff rate and has run into some trouble against breaking balls, but the production is impossible to ignore.
3. Parker Messick
Parker Messick owns a 2.98 FIP and a 3.09 xERA to complement his 2.35 ERA. His arsenal hasn’t changed much since last year. Messick doesn’t possess overpowering stuff, but he commands the ball exceptionally well and mixes six legitimate offerings.
His ability to shift between a sinker-slider approach against lefties and leaning more heavily on his fastball and changeup versus righties gives him another layer of effectiveness.
National League
1. Nolan McLean
Sal Stewart’s .644 OPS over the last 28 days means there’s a new leader atop the NL Rookie of the Year ladder. Stewart is nowhere near the conversation right now, and Nolan McLean has taken over the No. 1 spot.
McLean has simply been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He owns a 2.75 xERA and has already accumulated 1.5 fWAR.
2. JJ Wetherholt
The top rookie position player in the National League, JJ Wetherholt is worth 0.8 fWAR more than any other NL rookie. He’s struggled against lefties, yet still has been 20% above league average offensively.
Playing elite infield defense has helped Wetherholt surge up the fWAR leaderboard. At the plate, he’s rarely looked overwhelmed, keeping the strikeouts manageable while drawing walks in 11.5% of his plate appearances.
3. Bradgley Rodríguez
What Bradgley Rodríguez has done this season is absurd. Across 22.2 innings, he owns a 1.67 xERA and has stranded 80% of baserunners. Among pitchers to allow at least 50 balls in play, Rodríguez leads the majors in xERA.
Increasing the usage of his changeup while scaling back the four-seamer has transformed Rodríguez’s profile. His changeup and cutter have both been nearly untouchable throughout the season. A barrel rate of 1.5% barely seems real.
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