The United States men's national team has achieved maximum points through its first two games in Group D. It has secured the top spot in the group and does not have to worry about its final match against Turkiye. No matter what happens, the Americans will go through as Group D winners.
That means other group stage matches now matter to U.S. fans. The Americans' chances of making a deep run in the World Cup depend on their draw in the knockout stages. If they get the right opponents, they could go very deep. If they face the wrong team, they might be packing up early.
Remember, winning the group does not guarantee anything in the knockouts. In 2010, the Americans topped Group C, the first time they had ever won their group. Ghana promptly sent them home in their first knockout stage match. So matchups matter, and these matches will make a difference.
Bosnia vs. Qatar Needs A Winner
The United States would love to face the third-place team from Group B. Out of 16 UEFA sides that qualified for the World Cup, Bosnia and Herzegovina was the lowest ranked. Qatar ranks 58th in the world and just lost 6-0 to Canada. Neither side would be expected to compete with the Americans in the round of 32.
Fortunately for the United States, if Group B's third-place team qualifies for the knockout stage, it is almost guaranteed to face them in Santa Clara. If Group B produces one of the eight best third-place teams, there is only one combination where it would not face the USMNT. The best way to secure Group B's passage is for someone to win the final group stage match between Bosnia and Qatar.
If there is a winner, that side would finish on four points and almost surely qualify for the next round. If the match ends in a draw, though, Group B is probably out. Bosnia would have two points and a goal difference of minus three, which likely is not enough to advance.
Without Group B, the Americans' path becomes far more difficult. The likely opponent would instead be one of Algeria, Austria, Norway, or Senegal. All four rank in the top 30 in the world, and none would be easy opposition. It does not matter to the U.S. who wins on June 24 in Seattle, only that somebody does.
Anyone But Belgium to Win Group G
It has been 12 years since Tim Howard almost single-handedly willed the Americans past Belgium in the Round of 16. The USMNT is much better positioned for a rematch this time, and Belgium is not as strong as it was in 2014 or 2018.
That still doesn’t mean the Americans want to see the Red Devils in Seattle. For one, this would be Belgium's third match at Lumen Field. Belgium has made the Emerald City its headquarters for the tournament, and the team would be incredibly comfortable in that atmosphere.
Belgium also remains the most dangerous side in Group G. Facing them here would mean a significant step up in quality. The Americans will have to win that type of match eventually, but they would rather not do it this early.
The ideal scenario is for New Zealand to find a way to win the group, though that is unlikely. Instead, the U.S. will hope Egypt tops the group. Given the political tension between the United States and Iran, that is not a match anyone wants to see. Facing Egypt would give the U.S. a beatable opponent without the politics that would come with facing Iran.
The Group G winner would then face a third-place team, most likely Saudi Arabia, which would also be a winnable match.
Argentina and England to Win, Spain to Struggle
Argentina and England both opened their tournaments with a win, while Spain dropped points in a draw. From the Americans' perspective, the best-case scenario is for that pattern to continue, at least to a point.
The United States would love to see Argentina win Group J and England win Group L. That would push both giants onto the other half of the bracket. A quarterfinal would then come against either a runner-up from Group J, K, or L, or the winner of Group H. That last possibility is the one that worries the Americans.
Group H remains wide open, but Spain is the favorite. A quarterfinal against Spain would be a tall task, especially given Spain's tendency to find a higher gear later in tournaments. It is not as simple as hoping Spain finishes second in Group H, though. The third-place team could face the Group G winner in the round of 32, with the winner of that match then advancing to play either the United States or its opposition.
With Group L's runner-up a possibility, there is a chance the U.S. could see old rival Ghana in this spot. Other likely opponents include Austria, Algeria, Croatia, and Portugal. The last one should not worry the Americans much. Portugal is not looking like a real threat this time around, and given how reliant the team has become on Cristiano Ronaldo, the U.S. would have a real edge there.
Bottom Line
The U.S. can now afford to scoreboard watch. These games matter, and they will make the difference between reaching the quarterfinals and exiting in the round of 32.
The Americans obviously cannot control who they play. But they will have their preferences, and their game plan will depend heavily on which path they get. It should be an interesting few days before they find out.
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