After one round of group stage matches, it has become pretty clear. Expanding the men's FIFA World Cup to 48 teams was the right decision.
Most fans expected it to be a disaster, given the number of new faces at this World Cup. But after everyone has played a match, only five countries (South Africa, Haiti, Turkiye, Ecuador, and Algeria) have neither a goal nor a point in the standings to their name.
Curacao might have taken a 7-1 thrashing, but it still managed to score against Germany. Jordan and Uzbekistan likewise found the net, and Cabo Verde held on for a scoreless draw against heavily favored Spain. Those are moments of magic for those nations, and they will lead to more in the future.
In a 32-team tournament, they probably do not happen. Here is why expanding to 48 was the right move at this time.
New Pathways To Success
For too many years, Europe and South America have taken most of the bids to the World Cup. As the tournament has expanded, Africa, Asia, and North America have gradually increased their numbers.
Each time, they seem to show they deserved the increased number of bids.
Between 1990 and 2006, Africa saw its bid total grow from two to three and eventually five. In four of those five tournaments, an African side made its World Cup debut and advanced out of the group stage, including Cameroon in 1990, Nigeria in 1994, Senegal in 2002, and Ghana in 2006,
Africa is now up to eight bids, meaning new faces yet again. This time, Cabo Verde drew with Spain and DR Congo drew with Portugal. Both of those results were monumental moments for those nations. Even if they flame out in their next two matches, they will carry those memories for years to come.
By expanding to 48, FIFA has truly made the men's World Cup more of a world tournament. Forty years ago, Europe and South America took 18 of 24 bids, making up 75 percent of the field. Now they hold 22 of 48, just under half. That is real progress, because the world's game should represent the world, not just the biggest names.
Beyond the Big Names
In 2021, with Georgia one match away from qualifying for the European Championship, longtime defender Guram Kashia reflected on his country possibly making an international tournament for the first time.
"I always dreamed of it but never had the hope," Kashia said. "The real ambition was to play in the Champions League or Premier League, because that's achievable for a Georgian. But for the national team it was always like you had no chance, because you were competing with top teams that are obviously better than you. I never thought such a thing as this could happen."
Georgia missed out that year but qualified in 2024 and made it through the group stage. The same story played out for other nations at this World Cup, including Curacao and Haiti.
Curacao did not even exist as a national side until 2010, when the Netherlands Antilles split into separate islands. Until recently, its players had to choose between chasing international glory with the Netherlands, a world power, or resigning themselves to never competing in a world tournament by representing their home island.
Before the expansion, Curacao had little realistic hope of reaching the World Cup, given that North America only received three guaranteed bids. With two of those practically locked in for Mexico and the United States, Curacao essentially had to compete with 39 other nations for the one or two spots left. Now, six teams qualify directly from North America, with two more getting a shot in a playoff tournament.
That makes qualification genuinely possible for Curacao, Haiti, and others. They no longer have to go through Mexico, the United States, or Canada to reach the world stage. That gives the next generation hope that they can achieve their dreams for the country they love.
Increased Funding
Making the World Cup means real money, as each nation receives $11.5 million simply for qualifying. Advancing out of the group stage earns another $2 million, with $4 million more for winning a knockout stage match. Winning the title carries a $50 million prize.
Obviously, the smaller nations are not going to lift the trophy. But $11.5 million makes a real difference in poorer countries. Federations can invest that money into facilities, coaches, and equipment, ensuring the next generation can develop and compete at a higher level.
Iceland is a perfect example. When soccer's television rights exploded in the 2000s, Iceland saw an opportunity. The country took its television money and invested first in new stadiums so its youth could play year-round. It then paid for anyone interested to obtain an "A" or "B" coaching license, ensuring any aspiring player could easily find a coach who actually knew what they were doing.
Over the following 15 years, Iceland went from an afterthought to qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. African nations like Cameroon, Nigeria, and Ghana became mainstays at the tournament because they used their first appearances to build the infrastructure needed for future success. Nations like Uzbekistan, Jordan, DR Congo, and Haiti can do something similar with their sudden windfalls of cash, and thanks to the expansion, that path is now far more realistic.
Success Across the Board
The expansion to 48 could be viewed as a cash grab. But the action on the pitch has made clear that the men's World Cup was ready for it. There are 211 national teams that are FIFA members, and only 48 qualify for the World Cup. That is still less than 25 percent of all squads.
Making the World Cup remains a real achievement. Italy can attest to that, having failed to qualify in three straight tournaments. Even at 48 teams, making the field is no sure thing.
It seemed like a risk at first. But it is clear that by going to 48, FIFA made the right call.
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